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Conflict Experiences and Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

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  • Carlos Bozzoli

    () (German Institute of Economic Research)

  • Tilman Brück

    () (German Institute of Economic Research)

  • Tony Muhumuza

    () (German Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Tony Muhumuza, 2010. "Conflict Experiences and Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda," HiCN Working Papers 88, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:88
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    1. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
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