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From Conflict to Compromise: Experimental Evidence on Occupational Downgrading in Migration from Myanmar

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Listed:
  • Yashodhan Ghorpade
  • Muhammad Saad Imtiaz

Abstract

We examine the relationship between violent conflict and the willingness of potential migrants to accept lower skilled work (occupational downgrading). We develop a theoretical model of migration decisions, which we test using an innovative survey module administered to highskilled youth in Myanmar. Consistent with the predictions of the model, we show that insecurity induced by conflict reduces the additional wage premium that individuals would typically demand for taking on lower-skilled work, indicating greater amenability to occupational downgrading. These effects are particularly pronounced for disadvantaged groups, such as women, ethnic minorities, and those with weaker labor market networks or English language skills. The results are driven by respondents from areas under territorial contestation, and those interviewed after the sudden activation of a conscription law during the survey. This further confirms how security considerations may override the preference for skill-appropriate job matching, suggesting that conflict may worsen labor market outcomes and reduce potential gains from migration, especially for disadvantaged groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Yashodhan Ghorpade & Muhammad Saad Imtiaz, 2025. "From Conflict to Compromise: Experimental Evidence on Occupational Downgrading in Migration from Myanmar," HiCN Working Papers 427, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:427
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patricia Justino, 2009. "Poverty and Violent Conflict: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 315-333, May.
    2. Barry Chiswick, 1999. "Are Immigrants Favorably Self-Selected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 181-185, May.
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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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