Forecasting the Size Distribution of Financial Plants in Swedish Municipalities
The paper studies the forecasting of a future size distribution of plants. As a model we use an open Markov chain model for macro data. Estimation is by reparametrization instead of by inequality restrictions using single equation least squares. The estimator is studied in a small Monte Carlo experiment for short time series lengths and macro data. Well-known mobility indices and a new idea of using a truncated transition probability matrix are discussed and also studied in the Monte Carlo experiment. For the financial plants (1984-1993) we find evidence of mobility of a downsizing nature. In a one-step-ahead forecast evaluation we find some overprediction.
|Date of creation:||04 Oct 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden|
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
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Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
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- Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
- Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-32.
- Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
- Conlisk, John, 1985. "Comparative statics for markov chains," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 139-151, October.
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