Forecasting the Size Distribution of Financial Plants in Swedish Municipalities
The paper studies the forecasting of a future size distribution of plants. As a model we use an open Markov chain model for macro data. Estimation is by reparametrization instead of by inequality restrictions using single equation least squares. The estimator is studied in a small Monte Carlo experiment for short time series lengths and macro data. Well-known mobility indices and a new idea of using a truncated transition probability matrix are discussed and also studied in the Monte Carlo experiment. For the financial plants (1984-1993) we find evidence of mobility of a downsizing nature. In a one-step-ahead forecast evaluation we find some overprediction.
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- Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-32.
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