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Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space

  • Villani, Mattias


    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

The degree of empirical support of a priori plausible structures on the cointegration vectors has a central role in the analysis of cointegration. Villani (2000) and Strachan and van Dijk (2003) have recently proposed finite sample Bayesian procedures to calculate the posterior probability of restrictions on the cointegration space, using the existence of a uniform prior distribution on the cointegration space as the key ingredient. The current paper extends this approach to the empirically important case with different restrictions on the individual cointegration vectors. Prior distributions are proposed and posterior simulation algorithms are developed. Consumers' expenditure data for the US is used to illustrate the robustness of the results to variations in the prior. A simulation study shows that the Bayesian approach performs remarkably well in comparison to other more established methods for testing restrictions on the cointegration vectors.

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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 189.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0189
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Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

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  7. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-63, October.
  8. Strachan, R.W. & van Dijk, H.K., 2004. "Valuing structure, model uncertainty and model averaging in vector autoregressive processes," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  10. BAUWENS, Luc & LUBRANO , Michel, 1994. "Identification Restrictions and Posterior Densities in Cointegrated Gaussian VAR Systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1994018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  16. Koop, G. & Strachan, R.W. & van Dijk, H.K. & Villani, M., 2005. "Bayesian approaches to cointegratrion," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  17. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
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