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UIP for Short Investments in Long-Term Bonds

Author

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  • Alexius, Annika

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

The empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) is one of the best-established facts of international economics. The exchange rates of countries with high nominal interest rates tend to appreciate rather than depreciate as expected from UIP. However, virtually every published test of UIP studies short interest rates. In this paper, UIP is found to hold for carefully calculated returns to investments in long-term bonds and the US dollar - Deutsche mark exchange rate. For the corresponding short interest rates, the standard finding of a significantly negative relationship is confirmed. The results are explained in terms of a small macroeconomic model where the short interest rate is used as a monetary policy instrument to stabilise output and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexius, Annika, 2000. "UIP for Short Investments in Long-Term Bonds," Working Paper Series 115, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0115
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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/4670/wp_115.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-517, August.
    2. Martin D. D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 2017. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 3, pages 59-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    4. Kugler, Peter, 2000. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, open interest rate parity and central bank policy reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 209-214, February.
    5. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    7. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Annika Alexius, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-517, August.
    9. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2004. "Exchange rates and interest rates: can term structure models explain currency movements?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1595-1624, June.
    2. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    3. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Rappai & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A new insight into the UIP puzzle through the stationarity of long maturity forward rates," DNB Working Papers 098, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély” [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
    6. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.
    7. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2006. "Co-integrating currencies and yield differentials," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 159-175.
    8. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2007. "US-Swiss term structures and exchange rate dynamics," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 270-288.
    9. Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered interest parity; Long-term bonds;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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