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Firm Tunrover and the Rate of Macroeconomic Growth - Simulating the Macroeconomic Effects of Schumpeterian Creative Destruction

The positive effects of new innovative entry and fast and efficient allocation of resources are balanced against the efficiency of price signaling in markets in a non-linear micro based simulation model of an Experimentally Organized Economy (EOE). In this model increasingly rapid reallocation of resources over markets, moved by innovative new entry and competitive exit (the rate of firm turnover) generates faster growth in output, but eventually, if too fast, is shown to affect the reliability of price signaling in markets and to raise the frequency of investment mistakes. Beyond a certain level of the rate of firm turnover the aggregate effects at the macro level, therefore, turn negative. This optimal growth trajectory depends on the balance between the rates of entry and exit and on the performance of new firms compared to incumbents, their size compared to incumbents and the variation in the same characteristics.

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Paper provided by The Ratio Institute in its series Ratio Working Papers with number 66.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 18 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0066
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  2. Djankov, Simeon & La Porta, Rafael & López-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei, 2001. "The Regulation of Entry," CEPR Discussion Papers 2953, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Sidney G. Winter, 1964. "Economic "Natural Selection" and the Theory of the Firm," LEM Chapters Series, in: Yale Economic Essays, pages 225-272 Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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  9. Baldwin, John R. & Gorecki, Paul K., 1987. "Plant creation versus plant acquisition : The entry process in canadian manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 27-41, March.
  10. Honjo, Yuji, 2000. "Business failure of new firms: an empirical analysis using a multiplicative hazards model," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 557-574, May.
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  12. Guimaraes, Paulo & Mata, José & Portugal, Pedro, 1995. "The Survival of New Plants: Start-up Conditions and Post-entry Evolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 1203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  15. Brito, Paulo & Mello, Antonio S., 1995. "Financial constraints and firm post-entry performance," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 543-565, December.
  16. Boeri, Tito & Bellmann, Lutz, 1995. "Post-entry behaviour and the cycle: Evidence from Germany," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 483-500, December.
  17. Franco Modigliani, 1958. "New Developments on the Oligopoly Front," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 215.
  18. Mark Roberts & Shawn Klimek & Timothy Dunne, 2004. "Entrant Experience and Plant Exit," Working Papers 04-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  19. Eliasson, Gunnar & Taymaz, Erol, 1992. "The Limits of Policy Making: An Analysis of the Consequences of Boundedly Rational Government Using the Swedish Micro-to-Macro Model (MOSES)," Working Paper Series 333, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  20. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1988. "Entry, Exit, And Diffusion With Learning By Doing," Working Papers 88-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  21. Dan Johansson, 2005. "The Turnover of Firms and Industry Growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 487-495, 06.
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  24. Davidsson, Per & Henrekson, Magnus, 2002. " Determinants of the Prevalence of Start-Ups and High-Growth Firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 81-104, September.
  25. Masako Ueda, 2000. "Why Do Fast Growing Sectors Not Experience Above-Average Entry of New Firms?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1316, Econometric Society.
  26. Eliasson, Gunnar, 1977. "Competition and Market Processes in a Simulation Model of the Swedish Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 277-81, February.
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