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Modelling Addiction in Life-Cycle Models: Revisiting the Treatment of Latent Stocks and Other Unobservables

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  • Biørn, Erik

    () (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

Dynamic modeling of demand for goods whose cumulated stocks enter an intertemporal utility function as latent variables, is discussed. The issues include: how represent addiction, how handle unobserved expectations and changing plans, how deal with `dynamic inconsistency'? Arguments are put forth to give all optimizing conditions attention, not only those in which all variables are observable. If the latter, fairly common, `limited information-reduced dimension' strategy is pursued, problems are shown to arise in attempting to identify coe±cients of the preference structure and to test for addictive stocks. Examples, based on quadratic utility functions, illustrate the main points and challenge the validity of testing the `rational addiction' hypothesis, by using linear, single- equation autoregressive models, as suggested by Becker, Grossman, and Murphy (1994) and adopted in several following studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Biørn, Erik, 2009. "Modelling Addiction in Life-Cycle Models: Revisiting the Treatment of Latent Stocks and Other Unobservables," Memorandum 26/2009, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2009_026
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    File URL: https://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2009/Memo-26-2009.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life-cycle model. Addiction. Identi¯cation. Latent stocks; Perfect foresight; Ra- tional expectations; Dynamic inconsistency;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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