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Smoking Today and Stopping Tomorrow: a Limited Foresight Perspective


  • Philippe Jehiel
  • Andrew Lilico


This article considers an intertemporal decision problem in which the agent has limited foresight. It offers an interpretation of why people may smoke when they are young--as a result of having a short horizon of foresight--and refrain from smoking when they get older--as a result of having better foresight. (JEL codes: D03, D83, D91, I10) Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email:, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Jehiel & Andrew Lilico, 2010. "Smoking Today and Stopping Tomorrow: a Limited Foresight Perspective," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(2), pages 141-164, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:56:y:2010:i:2:p:141-164

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Philippe Jehiel, 2001. "Limited Foresight May Force Cooperation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 369-391.
    2. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    3. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Choice and Procrastination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 121-160.
    4. Harris, Christopher & Laibson, David, 2001. "Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 935-957, July.
    5. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 396-418, June.
    6. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    7. Jehiel, Philippe, 1998. "Learning to Play Limited Forecast Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 274-298, February.
    8. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2007. "Harmful Addiction," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 147-172.
    9. Jeheil Phillippe, 1995. "Limited Horizon Forecast in Repeated Alternate Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 497-519, December.
    10. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Brodeur, 2012. "Smoking, Income and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Smoking Bans," PSE Working Papers halshs-00664269, HAL.
    2. Sloan, Frank A. & Eldred, Lindsey M. & Xu, Yanzhi, 2014. "The behavioral economics of drunk driving," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 64-81.
    3. repec:eee:matsoc:v:87:y:2017:i:c:p:40-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alisa Frik & Luigi Mittone, 2016. "Factors Influencing the Perceived Websites' Privacy Trustworthiness and Users' Purchase Intentions," CEEL Working Papers 1609, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    5. Andrew Leicester & Peter Levell, 2013. "Anti-smoking policies and smoker well-being: evidence from Britain," IFS Working Papers W13/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Peeters R.J.A.P. & Méder Z.Z. & Flesch J., 2014. "Naiveté and sophistication in dynamic inconsistency," Research Memorandum 005, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations


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