IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/nierwp/0092.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When Are Fiscal Contractions Successful? Lessons for Countries Within and Outside the EMU

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In the past 25 years, many OECD countries have implemented fiscal contractions to strengthen their public finances. The macroeconomic outcomes of these efforts have varied. With the aid of an econometric model, this paper seeks to identify the factors that make contractions successful from a macroeconomic standpoint. The findings suggest, among other things, that favorable changes in the real exchange rate prior to the period of fiscal contraction and in the real quantity of money during this period play an important part in the macroeconomic outcome. This indicates in turn that it may be more difficult to implement successful fiscal contractions within the EMU. The findings also show that the composition of the contraction in regard to the relative proportions of tax increases and expenditure cutbacks, respectively, is probably less important than has usually been assumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hjelm, Göran, 2004. "When Are Fiscal Contractions Successful? Lessons for Countries Within and Outside the EMU," Working Papers 92, National Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.konj.se/download/18.4ee9b512150ed5e093b906fd/1447246075291/Working-Paper-92-When-Are-Fiscal-Contractions-Successful-Lessons-for-Countries-Within-and-Outside-the-EMU.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 488-545.
    2. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 363-384, December.
    4. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-441, September.
    7. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    8. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. "Is private consumption growth higher (lower) during periods of fiscal contractions (expansions)?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-39, March.
    9. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    11. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F. Heylen & A. Hoebeeck & T. Buyse, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation, institutions and institutional reform: a multivariate analysis of public debt dynamics," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/763, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Neicheva, Maria, 2007. "Non-Keynesian effects of Government Spending: Some implications for the Stability and Growth Pact," MPRA Paper 5277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    4. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "The importance of composition of fiscal policy: evidence from different exchange rate regimes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2253-2279, September.
    5. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    6. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2014. "Fiscal adjustment and the costs of public debt service: evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2593-2610, August.
    7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco & Benedetti, Marina, 2005. "Searching for Non-monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(S1), pages 197-217, October.
    8. Wissem Khanfir, 2019. "Keynesian or Non-keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: the Case of Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 335-347, March.
    9. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2007. "Fiscal policy and private consumption in industrial and developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 912-939, December.
    10. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    12. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    13. Heylen, Freddy & Hoebeeck, Annelies & Buyse, Tim, 2013. "Government efficiency, institutions, and the effects of fiscal consolidation on public debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 40-59.
    14. Baldacci, Emanuele & Hillman, Arye L. & Kojo, Naoko C., 2004. "Growth, governance, and fiscal policy transmission channels in low-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 517-549, September.
    15. António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp C. Rother, 2006. "Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 402-421, July.
    16. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    17. Ioannis Kostakis, 2017. "The impact of shadow economy and/or corruption on private consumption: further evidence from selected Eurozone economies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 411-434, December.
    18. Wissem Khanfir, 2016. "Threshold effect of fiscal policy on private consumption : Evidence from Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 95-110, March.
    19. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2003. "The Trade-Off between Growth & Equality and the Economic Impact of Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies in the EU," European Economy Group Working Papers 20, European Economy Group.
    20. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Contractions; Fiscal Policy; Real Exchange Rate; EMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0092. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Hegardt Grant (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kongvse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.