Forecasting global growth by age structure projections
Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2004|
|Note:||ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-53-2|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden|
Phone: 08-402 12 00
Fax: 08-24 50 14
Web page: http://www.framtidsstudier.se
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Erika Karlsson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.