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Forecasting global growth by age structure projections

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Abstract

Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.

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  • Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Forecasting global growth by age structure projections," Arbetsrapport 2004:5, Institute for Futures Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_005
    Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-53-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kelley, Allen C. & Robert M. Schmidt, 1995. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Working Papers 95-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thun, Jörn-Henrik & Lehr, Christian B. & Bierwirth, Max, 2011. "Feel free to feel comfortable--An empirical analysis of ergonomics in the German automotive industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 551-561, October.
    2. Ström, Sara, 2005. "Childbearing and psycho-social work life conditions in Sweden 1991-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:13, Institute for Futures Studies.
    3. Duvander, Ann-Zofie & Ferrarini, Tommy & Thalberg, Sara, 2005. "Swedish parental leave and gender equality - Achievements and reform challenges in a European perspective," Arbetsrapport 2005:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
    4. Bäckman, Olof, 2005. "Welfare States, Social Structure and the Dynamics of Poverty Rates. A comparative study of 16 countries, 1980-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
    5. Lundqvist, Torbjörn, 2005. "The Employers in the Swedish Model The Importance of Labour Market Competition and Organisation," Arbetsrapport 2005:2, Institute for Futures Studies.
    6. Blomquist, Sören & Christiansen, Vidar, 2004. "Welfare Enhancing Marginal Tax Rates: The Case of Publicly Provided Day Care," Arbetsrapport 2004:6, Institute for Futures Studies.
    7. Hong, Ying & Corman, Diana, 2005. "Women´s Return to Work after First Birth in Sweden during 1980-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:19, Institute for Futures Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global growth; age structure;

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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