Inter-temporal variation in the travel time and travel cost parameters of transport models
The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time and cost parameters. It is found that the travel time parameter has remained constant over time but that the travel cost parameter has declined in real terms. The trend decline in the cost parameter can be entirely explained by higher average income level in the 2007 sample compared to the 1994 sample. The results support the recommendation to keep the travel time parameter constant over time in forecast models but to deflate the travel cost parameter according to forecasts of income increases among travellers and the relevant income elasticity of the cost parameter. Evidence from this study further suggests that the inter-temporal and the cross-sectional income elasticity of the cost parameter are equal. The average elasticity is found to be -0.8- -0.9 in the present sample of drivers, and the elasticity is found to increases with real income level, both in the cross-section and over time.
|Date of creation:||04 May 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.cts.kth.se/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mogens Fosgerau, 2004.
"Investigating the distribution of the value of travel time savings,"
0410005, EconWPA, revised 25 Nov 2004.
- Fosgerau, Mogens, 2006. "Investigating the distribution of the value of travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 688-707, September.
- Mogens Fosgerau, 2004. "Investigating the distribution of the value of travel time savings," Urban/Regional 0411006, EconWPA.
- ,, 2008. "An Introduction to Auction Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199275991, March.
- Cameron, Trudy Ann & James, Michelle D, 1987.
"Efficient Estimation Methods for "Closed-ended' Contingent Valuation Surveys,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 269-76, May.
- Trudy Ann Cameron & Michelle D. James, 1986. "Efficient Estimation Methods for "Closed-Ended" Contingent Valuation Surveys," UCLA Economics Working Papers 404, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Bateman, Ian J, et al, 1997. "A Test of the Theory of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 479-505, May.
- Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2012.
"Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study,"
Working papers in Transport Economics
2012:8, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
- Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2014. "Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 144-158.
- Börjesson, Maria & Fosgerau, Mogens & Algers, Staffan, 2012. "On the income elasticity of the value of travel time," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 368-377.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Knetsch, Jack L & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1325-48, December.
- Lars Hultkrantz & Reza Mortazavi, 2001. "Anomalies in the Value of Travel-Time Changes," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 35(2), pages 285-299, May.
- Börjesson, Maria & Fosgerau, Mogens & Algers, Staffan, 2012. "Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 378-391.
- Hans-Ulrich Derlien & B. Guy Peters, 2008. "Introduction," Chapters, in: The State at Work, Volume 2, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mats Berggren)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.