IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-00796236.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations in two-sector RBC models: theory and calibration

Author

Listed:
  • Frederic Dufourt

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Kazuo Nishimura

    (Kyoto University)

  • Alain Venditti

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We analyze sunspot-driven fluctuations in the standard 2-sector RBC model with moderate increasing returns to scale. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis enabling us to derive relevant bifurcation loci and to characterize the steady-state local stability properties as a function of various structural parameters. With GHH preferences, we show that local indeterminacy occurs through flip and Hopf bifurcations for a large set of values of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption if the labor supply is su fficiently inelastic. With additively-separable preferences, we prove that local indeterminacy occurs through flip and Hopf bifurcations for any value of the elasticity of the labor supply, and can even be compatible with an arbitrarily low elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption. Finally, we provide a detailed quantitative analysis of the model. Computing, on a quarterly basis, a new set of empirical moments related to two broadly de fined consumption and investment sectors, we are able to identify, among the set of admissible calibrations consistent with sunspot equilibria, the ones that provide the best fi t of the data. The model properly calibrated solves several empirical puzzles traditionally associated with 2-sector RBC models.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations in two-sector RBC models: theory and calibration," Working Papers halshs-00796236, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00796236
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00796236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00796236/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    2. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E. A., 1996. "Indeterminacy and sector-specific externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 421-443, June.
    4. Garnier, Jean-Philippe & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "Local Indeterminacy In Continuous-Time Models: The Role Of Returns To Scale," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 326-355, March.
    5. Pintus, Patrick A., 2007. "Local determinacy with non-separable utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 669-682, February.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695, Elsevier.
    7. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 9373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bennett, Rosalind L. & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2000. "Indeterminacy with Non-separable Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 118-143, July.
    9. Rogerson, Richard & Wallenius, Johanna, 2009. "Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2277-2292, November.
    10. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    11. Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2010. "Indeterminacy and expectation-driven fluctuations with non-separable preferences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 46-56, July.
    12. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303, Elsevier.
    13. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 67-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 311-346, Springer.
    15. Jean‐Philippe Garnier & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2007. "Intertemporal substitution in consumption, labor supply elasticity and sunspot fluctuations in continuous‐time models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 3(4), pages 235-259, December.
    16. Jaimovich, Nir, 2008. "Income effects and indeterminacy in a calibrated one-sector growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 610-623, November.
    17. Meng, Qinglai & Yip, Chong Kee, 2008. "On indeterminacy in one-sector models of the business cycle with factor-generated externalities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 97-110, March.
    18. Jonathan Gruber, 2006. "A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 11945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    20. Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Indeterminacy in Discrete-Time Infinite-Horizon Models with Non-linear Utility and Endogenous Labor," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 363-400, Springer.
    21. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-155, February.
    22. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    23. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    24. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2008. "Indeterminacy in aggregate models with small externalities: an interplay between preferences and technology," Working Papers halshs-00281428, HAL.
    25. Hintermaier, Thomas, 2003. "On the minimum degree of returns to scale in sunspot models of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 400-409, June.
    26. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    27. Annette Vissing-Jørgensen & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2003. "Stock-Market Participation, Intertemporal Substitution, and Risk-Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 383-391, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2010. "Indeterminacy and expectation-driven fluctuations with non-separable preferences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 46-56, July.
    2. Dufourt, Frédéric & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2015. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in two-sector RBC models with generalized no-income-effect preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1056-1080.
    3. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2016. "Sunspot fluctuations in two-sector models: New results with additively separable preferences," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 12(1), pages 67-83, March.
    4. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2022. "Expectations, self-fulfilling prophecies and the business cycle," Working Papers hal-03923946, HAL.
    5. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Destabilizing balanced-budget consumption taxes in multi-sector economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 113-130, March.
    6. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2017. "Sunspot Fluctuations in Two-Sector Models with Variable Income Effects," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 71-96, Springer.
    7. Magris, Francesco, 2012. "Indeterminacy and multiple steady states with sector-specific externalities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2664-2672.
    8. Busato, Francesco & Marchetti, Enrico, 2010. "Endogenous skill cycles," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 175-185, September.
    9. Jang-Ting Guo & Sharon G. Harrison, 2015. "Indeterminacy with Progressive Taxation and Sector-Specific Externalities," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 268-281, May.
    10. Dufourt, Frédéric & Venditti, Alain & Vivès, Rémi, 2018. "On sunspot fluctuations in variable capacity utilization models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 80-94.
    11. Guo, Jang-Ting & Harrison, Sharon G., 2010. "Indeterminacy with no-income-effect preferences and sector-specific externalities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 287-300, January.
    12. Nourry, Carine & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "Aggregate instability under balanced-budget consumption taxes: A re-examination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(5), pages 1977-2006.
    13. Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Akos, 2006. "On the stability of the two-sector neoclassical growth model with externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1339-1361, August.
    14. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Veron, Emmanuelle & Venditti, Alain, 2012. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 295-308.
    15. Jean-Philippe Garnier, 2013. "Keeping-up with the Joneses, a new source of fluctuations in the two-sector continuous-time models," Working Papers hal-00991664, HAL.
    16. Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Marchetti, Enrico, 2011. "Indeterminacy, underground activities and tax evasion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 831-844, May.
    17. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 633-664, November.
    18. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Thomas Seegmuller, 2005. "Steady state analysis and endogenous fluctuations in a finance constrained model," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v05029, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    20. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indeterminacy; sunspots; two-sector model; sector-specifi c externalities; real business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00796236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.