IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03460404.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

La reprise en zone euro ne se produit pas. La croissance mondiale reste également à la peine, sous le coup de la faiblesse de la zone euro et en l'absence de moteur vigoureux. L'année 2015 serait marquée par une légère accélération, mais là encore à un rythme de croissance trop faible dans la plupart des pays de la zone euro pour induire une baisse significative du chômage. Pourtant, à la suite des interventions de la Banque centrale, de la mise en place d'un mécanisme européen de résolution des crises bancaires, de la modération dans la consolidation budgétaire ou même de la baisse de l'euro par rapport au dollar intervenue au cours de l'année 2014, une sortie de crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro était espérée. La dynamique de l'impact des plans de consolidation budgétaire peut expliquer en partie que ceux-ci jouent encore négativement. Mais le rôle joué par les taux d'intérêts réels anticipés par les agents privés (entreprises et ménages) indique que la dynamique de déflation est centrale. La résolution de la crise des dettes souveraines n'a pas produit la baisse attendue des taux pratiqués aux agents privés. Le ralentissement de l'inflation a conduit à une hausse des taux réels (en Espagne et en Italie principalement). Un passage, même temporaire, par la déflation accentuera le poids de la dette publique et appellera de nouvelles consolidations budgétaires. Un « désancrage » des anticipations refermerait sûrement le piège de la déflation. Les ajustements en cours sur les salaires et coûts unitaires sont un facteur supplémentaire contribuant à cette spirale déflationniste. Les pays en crise cherchent dans la compétitivité un substitut à une demande intérieure atone. Mais les gains des uns réduisent ceux attendus par les autres et maintiennent la pression à la baisse sur les salaires nominaux ou obligent aux dévaluations fiscales. L'ajustement interne de la zone euro passera par les coûts relatifs, mais la sortie de crise suppose une politique monétaire vigoureuse, une fragmentation réduite du financement de la zone euro mais aussi un stimulus de la demande que la baisse de l'euro ne suffira pas à produire.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460404, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03460404
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03460404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03460404/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nivat, D. & Villetelle, J-P., 2006. "Les mauvaises performances du commerce extérieur de la France sont-elles liées à un problème de demande ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 146, pages 21-31.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/qip0563gp8fhb80ubocnn3j3f is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version : e-mod.fr," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 245-300.
    4. Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik & Mr. Julio Escolano & Ms. Stefania Fabrizio & Mr. Werner Schule & Mr. Herman Z Bennett & Mr. Stephen Tokarick & Mr. Yuan Xiao & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Miss Eva Gutierrez & , 2008. "Competitiveness in the Southern Euro Area: France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain," IMF Working Papers 2008/112, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jérôme Héricourt & Philippe Martin & Gianluca Orefice, 2014. "Les exportateurs français face à l'euro," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 340.
    6. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    7. Keiko Murata & Dave Turner & David Rae & Laurence Le Fouler, 2000. "Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations: A System Estimation Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 235, OECD Publishing.
    8. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 29-66.
    9. Anderton, Bob, 1991. "Underlying Trends in Manufacturing Export Shares for Six Major Industrialized Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 169-178, April.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-264, May.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    12. Nigel Pain & Annabelle Mourougane & Franck Sédillot & Laurence Le Fouler, 2005. "The New OECD International Trade Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 440, OECD Publishing.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2362 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1631 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Demertzis, Maria & Van Els, Peter & Grob, Sybille & Peeters, Marga, 2006. "EUROMON: The multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," MPRA Paper 28512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    17. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "Drivers of Export Demand: A Focus on the GIIPS Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1454-1482, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c6c7hcjgm915q0m9u9i8r91sb is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bruno Ducoudré & Eric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive," Post-Print hal-01093016, HAL.
    3. Bruno Ducoudré & Éric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive. Quel pays en profitera le plus ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 221-253.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1h97uoi1ng8t5q1gqhfd257dam is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Cases of Japan, China, and Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 298-321, December.
    6. Bernardina Algieri, 2015. "Price and non-price competitiveness in export demand: empirical evidence from Italy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 157-183, February.
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "Drivers of Export Demand: A Focus on the GIIPS Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1454-1482, October.
    8. D. Baiardi & C. Bianchi, 2018. "At the roots of China's striking performance in textile exports: a comparison with its main Asian competitors," Economics Department Working Papers 2018-EP03, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    9. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "Again on trade elasticities: evidence from a selected sample of countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-287, December.
    10. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    11. Baiardi, Donatella & Bianchi, Carluccio, 2019. "At the roots of China's striking performance in textile exports: A comparison with its main Asian competitors," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 367-389.
    12. Algieri, Bernardina, 2015. "An Analysis of Regional Export Patterns: The Case of Calabria in Southern Italy - Un’analisi dei modelli di esportazione regionale: il caso della Calabria," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 297-322.
    13. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "New Evidence on Export Price Elasticity from China and Six OECD Countries," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(6), pages 56-78, November.
    14. Aiello, Francesco & Bonanno, Graziella & Via, Alessia, 2014. "Do export price elasticities support tensions in currency markets? Evidence from China and six OECD countries," MPRA Paper 56727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bernardina Algieri & Antonio Aquino & Lidia Mannarino, 2018. "Non-Price Competitiveness and Financial Drivers of Exports: Evidences from Italian Regions," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 107-133, March.
    16. Département analyse et prévision & Éric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Bruno Ducoudré & Hervé Péléraux, 2014. "France : ajustements graduels. Perspectives 2014-2015 pour l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 85-143.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1h8j7abjq89cloabnpm33r8i7k is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Hosny, 2015. "Commodity trade between EU and Egypt and Orcutt’s hypothesis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, February.
    19. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2010. "Estimating Import And Export Demand Elasticities For Mauritius And South Africa," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 241-252, September.
    20. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    21. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Lawrence, 2008. "South African trade policy matters Trade performance and trade policy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 585-608, October.
    22. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The Relationship Between Greek Exports and Foreign Income," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 64(1), pages 99-114.
    23. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bolhassani, Marzieh & Hegerty, Scott W., 2010. "The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 212-223, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03460404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.