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L'indicateur avancé de l'OFCE

Author

Listed:
  • Françoise Charpin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Cet article présente les principes de construction d'un indicateur avancé pour l'économie française, ainsi que son utilisation possible. L'objectif est de prévoir la croissance du PIB pour le trimestre en cours et le trimestre à venir. L'indicateur avancé incorpore des informations conjoncturelles à fréquence mensuelle et peut être ainsi calculé chaque mois. Deux blocs de variables entrent dans la composition de l'indicateur : un bloc réel contenant des variables coïncidentes et avancées d'un trimestre, et un bloc financier regroupant des variables avancées d'au moins trois trimestres. Les contributions de chaque bloc sont analysées pour apprécier le rôle des différents facteurs. Puis l'indicateur est mis en œuvre dans un exercice rétrospectif de prévision. Les résultats paraissent significatifs et confèrent à l'instrument un caractère opérationnel qui devra toutefois être éprouvé au fil des prévisions (...).

Suggested Citation

  • Françoise Charpin & Hervé Péléraux, 2000. "L'indicateur avancé de l'OFCE," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01011215, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01011215
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.2000.1572
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01011215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2001. "An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-37.
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