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Prudent aggregation of quasi-hyperbolic experts

Author

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  • Bach Dong-Xuan

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, NEU - National Economics University [Hanoï, Vietnam])

  • Philippe Bich

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Bertrand Wigniolle

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Imagine a cohort of economic experts appraising long-term projects through the quasi-hyperbolic discounting criterion. The parameters (long-run and short-run discount rates) used by each expert may differ, which implies different policy recommendations. Subsequently, a decision maker is faced with the task of selecting an efficient aggregation from these varied opinions. This paper proposes a solution to reconcile these conflicting recommendations, taking into account the decision maker's adoption of a "prudent" behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Bach Dong-Xuan & Philippe Bich & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2024. "Prudent aggregation of quasi-hyperbolic experts," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-04632144, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04632144
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-024-01575-8
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quasi-hyperbolic discounting; Aggregation of time preferences; Discount rate; Caution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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