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Les collectivités locales peuvent-elles restaurer leur capacité de financement ? Les enseignements du modèle macroéconomique APUL

Author

Listed:
  • Guy Gilbert

    (ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan)

  • Alain Guengant

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christophe Tavéra

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

L'article présente un modèle macroéconomique des administrations publiques locales (APUL) françaises cohérent avec leur cadre comptable centré sur la contrainte d'équilibre des budgets et des comptes. Il s'interroge sur la pérennité du besoin de financement et de la croissance de la dette des APUL observés actuellement et sur ses éventuelles conséquences dans le cadre des engagements macro- budgétaires européens. Le modèle repose sur l'hypothèse, confirmée empiriquement sur la période d'estimation 1978-2003, que les budgets locaux se construisent à partir d'une hypothèse de stabilité fiscale et se bouclent par un arbitrage investissement/ endettement. Les simulations rétrospectives et prospectives suggèrent que dans un contexte de croissance, d'inflation et de taux d'intérêt modérés, le besoin de financement des APUL pourrait disparaître d'ici 2010. Les simulations font ressortir en outre la forte pro-cyclicité du solde budgétaire local, celui-ci évoluant en raison directe à la croissance économique ; l'effet positif d'une élévation du taux d'intérêt sur le solde de financement dont l'effet dépressif sur la demande d'emprunts l'emporte sur l'effet d'alourdissement de la charge de remboursement, et l'effet négatif d'une augmentation du prix relatif des biens d'investissement.

Suggested Citation

  • Guy Gilbert & Alain Guengant & Christophe Tavéra, 2009. "Les collectivités locales peuvent-elles restaurer leur capacité de financement ? Les enseignements du modèle macroéconomique APUL," Post-Print halshs-00438563, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00438563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    2. Marie-Estelle Binet & Jean-Sebastien Pentecote, 2004. "Tax degression and the political budget cycle in French municipalities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 905-908.
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