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Les collectivités locales peuvent-elles restaurer leur capacité de financement ?. Les enseignements du modèle macroéconomique APUL

Author

Listed:
  • Guy Gilbert
  • Alain Guengant
  • Christophe Tavéra

Abstract

simulation exercises. The first result confirms that in a context of moderate economic growth, moderate inflation,and interest rates, French local-government budgets are likely to reach equilibrium by 2010. The simulation exercises alsoconfirm (1) the pro-cyclical behavior of local fiscal policy, as the acceleration of economic growth increases the budgetsurplus or reduces the deficit ; (2) the positive net effect of higher interest rates on local fiscal positions, as the dampeningeffect of weaker investment demand exceeds the rise in interest payments ; (3) the negative effect of an increase in pricesof investment goods relative to GDP prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Guy Gilbert & Alain Guengant & Christophe Tavéra, 2009. "Les collectivités locales peuvent-elles restaurer leur capacité de financement ?. Les enseignements du modèle macroéconomique APUL," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 21-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_189_0021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    2. Marie-Estelle Binet & Jean-Sebastien Pentecote, 2004. "Tax degression and the political budget cycle in French municipalities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 905-908.
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