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Les collectivités locales peuvent-elles restaurer leur capacité de financement ? Les enseignements du modèle macroéconomique APUL

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Tavéra
  • Alain Guengant
  • Guy Gilbert

Abstract

[eng] Since 2004, French local governments have been running deficits and have moved deeper into debt, making it harder for general government to comply with the fiscal rules of the Maastricht and Amsterdam Treaties. The growing concern over the local governments’ fiscal sustainability calls for a sounder understanding of their fiscal behavior. Our paper provides a new macroeconomic model of French local government finances consistent with the “ golden rule ” imposed on every local government in the country. The model assumes that local budgets are prepared under the hypothesis of tax-rate stability and are balanced through a trade-off between investment expenditures and borrowings. Our empirical estimates of the model for the period 1978-2003 confirm the theoretical assumption. We run the model through various ex ante and ex post simulation exercises. The first result confirms that in a context of moderate economic growth, moderate inflation, and interest rates, French local-government budgets are likely to reach equilibrium by 2010. The simulation exercises also confirm (1) the pro-cyclical behavior of local fiscal policy, as the acceleration of economic growth increases the budget surplus or reduces the deficit ; (2) the positive net effect of higher interest rates on local fiscal positions, as the dampening effect of weaker investment demand exceeds the rise in interest payments ; (3) the negative effect of an increase in prices of investment goods relative to GDP prices. [fre] L’article présente un modèle macroéconomique des administrations publiques locales (APUL) françaises cohérent avec leur cadre comptable centré sur la contrainte d’équilibre des budgets et des comptes. Il s’interroge sur la pérennité du besoin de financement et de la croissance de la dette des APUL observés actuellement et sur ses éventuelles conséquences dans le cadre des engagements macro-budgétaires européens. Le modèle repose sur l’hypothèse, confirmée empiriquement sur la période d’estimation 1978-2003, que les budgets locaux se construisent à partir d’une hypothèse de stabilité fiscale et se bouclent par un arbitrage investissement / endettement. Les simulations rétrospectives et prospectives suggèrent que dans un contexte de croissance, d’inflation et de taux d’intérêt modérés, le besoin de financement des APUL pourrait disparaître d’ici 2010. Les simulations font ressortir en outre la forte pro-cyclicité du solde budgétaire local, celui-ci évoluant en raison directe à la croissance économique ; l’effet positif d’une élévation du taux d’intérêt sur le solde de financement dont l’effet dépressif sur la demande d’emprunts l’emporte sur l’effet d’alourdissement de la charge de remboursement, et l’effet négatif d’une augmentation du prix relatif des biens d’investissement.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Tavéra & Alain Guengant & Guy Gilbert, 2009. "Les collectivités locales peuvent-elles restaurer leur capacité de financement ? Les enseignements du modèle macroéconomique APUL," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 21-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2009_num_189_3_7922
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2009.7922
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2009.7922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    2. Marie-Estelle Binet & Jean-Sebastien Pentecote, 2004. "Tax degression and the political budget cycle in French municipalities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 905-908.
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