IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-05367620.html

Inflation and balance of payments during Milei´s government. A critical review of the official narrative
[Inflación y balance de pagos durante el gobierno de Milei. Una mirada crítica del discurso oficial]

Author

Listed:
  • Valentín Álvarez

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNSAM - Universidad Nacional de San Martin)

  • Juan Manuel Campana

    (Berlin School of Economics and Law, OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas)

  • Facundo Malvicino

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNRN - Universidad Nacional de Río Negro)

  • Pablo Wahren

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNGS - Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento [Los Polvorines, Buenos Aires])

  • Matías Wasserman

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNSAM - Universidad Nacional de San Martin)

Abstract

A poco más de un año de la asunción del gobierno de Javier Milei, la tasa de inflación mensual cayó del 12.8 % a valores en torno al 2.5 %. De acuerdo con el discurso oficial, este resultado fue posible gracias al significativo ajuste fiscal y la reducción de la emisión monetaria, con la política cambiaria y otros elementos que lo distinguen de un plan de estabilización ortodoxo cumpliendo solo un rol complementario. En este artículo argumentamos que estos elementos presentados como accesorios por el gobierno, junto a otros determinantes del sector externo, han sido centrales para los resultados alcanzados. La eficacia del plan se debe a fundamentos distintos de los que propone el equipo económico de Milei, lo que implica que los canales de transmisión y los riesgos a futuro son diferentes. La contribución es tanto empírica como teórica: presentamos un análisis del plan de estabilización más reciente y discutimos críticamente sus fundamentos teóricos. Nuestra interpretación alternativa propone que la desinflación alcanzada se explica fundamentalmente por la dinámica del sector externo y allí también radican sus principales vulnerabilidades.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentín Álvarez & Juan Manuel Campana & Facundo Malvicino & Pablo Wahren & Matías Wasserman, 2025. "Inflation and balance of payments during Milei´s government. A critical review of the official narrative [Inflación y balance de pagos durante el gobierno de Milei. Una mirada crítica del discurso oficial]," Post-Print hal-05367620, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05367620
    DOI: 10.22201/fe.18701442e.2025.51.93653
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05367620v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-05367620v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22201/fe.18701442e.2025.51.93653?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2016. "International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-49862-0, January.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    3. Meller, Patricio, 1987. "Revisión de los enfoques teóricos sobre ajuste externo y su relevancia para América Latina," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    2. Carmen Broto & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2008. "The Sources of Capital Flows Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Emerging Countries," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 93-128, January-J.
    3. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    4. Samir Jahjah & Bin Wei & Vivian Zhanwei Yue, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1275-1300, October.
    5. Michael Wosser, 2015. "The Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises A Regulatory Perspective," Economics Department Working Paper Series n265-15.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. Natacha Postel‐Vinay & Stéphanie Collet, 2024. "Hot money inflows and bank risk‐taking: Germany from the 1920s to the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(2), pages 472-502, May.
    7. Guido Sandleris & Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Indexed Sovereign Debt: a Survey and a Framework of Analysis," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 66, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    8. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
    9. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2001. "Is foreign direct investment a safer form of financing?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 34-49, March.
    10. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2010. "Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-39, January.
    11. Nuri Yildirim & Huseyin Tastan, 2012. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth across Spectral requencies: Evidence from Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 441-462, September.
    12. Illenin Kondo & Sewon Hur, 2011. "A Theory of Optimal Reserves Allocation and Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies," 2011 Meeting Papers 1105, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Abhirup Chakrabarti, 2015. "Organizational adaptation in an economic shock: The role of growth reconfiguration," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1717-1738, November.
    14. Benecká, Soňa & Komarek, Lubos, 2018. "International reserves: Facing model uncertainty," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 523-531.
    15. Wenwen Sheng & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2017. "Capital Flow Management Policies and Riskiness of External Liability Structures: the Role of Local Financial Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 461-498, July.
    16. Ondřej Šíma, 2020. "Reálná ekonomika jako zdroj nerovnováhy obchodní bilance - základní přístup [Real Economy as a Source of Trade Balance Disequilibrium - Basic Approach]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(3), pages 322-347.
    17. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    18. Fabian Fink & Yves S. Schüler, 2013. "The Transmission of US Financial Stress: Evidence for Emerging Market Economies," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    19. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    20. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2024. "A Financially Driven Business Cycle for Latin America and the Caribbean," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(1), pages 5-36.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05367620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.