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Inflation and balance of payments during Milei´s government. A critical review of the official narrative
[Inflación y balance de pagos durante el gobierno de Milei. Una mirada crítica del discurso oficial]

Author

Listed:
  • Valentín Álvarez

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNSAM - Universidad Nacional de San Martin)

  • Juan Manuel Campana

    (Berlin School of Economics and Law, OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas)

  • Facundo Malvicino

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNRN - Universidad Nacional de Río Negro)

  • Pablo Wahren

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNGS - Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento [Los Polvorines, Buenos Aires])

  • Matías Wasserman

    (OCEPP - Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Políticas Públicas, UNSAM - Universidad Nacional de San Martin)

Abstract

A poco más de un año de la asunción del gobierno de Javier Milei, la tasa de inflación mensual cayó del 12.8 % a valores en torno al 2.5 %. De acuerdo con el discurso oficial, este resultado fue posible gracias al significativo ajuste fiscal y la reducción de la emisión monetaria, con la política cambiaria y otros elementos que lo distinguen de un plan de estabilización ortodoxo cumpliendo solo un rol complementario. En este artículo argumentamos que estos elementos presentados como accesorios por el gobierno, junto a otros determinantes del sector externo, han sido centrales para los resultados alcanzados. La eficacia del plan se debe a fundamentos distintos de los que propone el equipo económico de Milei, lo que implica que los canales de transmisión y los riesgos a futuro son diferentes. La contribución es tanto empírica como teórica: presentamos un análisis del plan de estabilización más reciente y discutimos críticamente sus fundamentos teóricos. Nuestra interpretación alternativa propone que la desinflación alcanzada se explica fundamentalmente por la dinámica del sector externo y allí también radican sus principales vulnerabilidades.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentín Álvarez & Juan Manuel Campana & Facundo Malvicino & Pablo Wahren & Matías Wasserman, 2025. "Inflation and balance of payments during Milei´s government. A critical review of the official narrative [Inflación y balance de pagos durante el gobierno de Milei. Una mirada crítica del discurso oficial]," Post-Print hal-05367620, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05367620
    DOI: 10.22201/fe.18701442e.2025.51.93653
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05367620v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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