IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02162281.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Auto-Mobility: Combining Cohort Analysis with Panel Data Econometrics

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Grimal

    (Cerema Equipe-projet ESPRIM - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement - Equipe-projet ESPRIM - Cerema - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement)

Abstract

In this paper, we present an ad hoc model for car traffic generation, which is used to make projections in 2060, according to a number of scenarios based on various assumptions about fuel prices, fuel efficiency, income growth and travel behaviors of new generations. Two sets of scenarios are successively tested, corresponding either to the "business as usual" case, or to a declining appetite for car ownership in new generations. Projection results serve to discuss the "peak car" hypothesis of a decline to come in average car travel per adult. The modelling framework is based on a sequential and individual approach to car traffic generation where the age-cohort framework is combined with panel data econometrics. Projection results suggest that under stable behaviors, "peak car" is less likely to happen than a plateau. A decline in car travel could happen, nonetheless, in case of changing behaviors in new generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Grimal, 2017. "Modeling Auto-Mobility: Combining Cohort Analysis with Panel Data Econometrics," Post-Print hal-02162281, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02162281
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02162281
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02162281/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aoki, Masanao & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 2002. "Demand saturation-creation and economic growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 127-154, June.
    2. Richard Grimal & Roger Collet & Jean-Loup Madre, 2013. "Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 291-309, May.
    3. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1996_51n4-5_0977 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gardes, Francois & Langlois, Simon & Richaudeau, Didier, 1996. "Cross-section versus time-series income elasticities of Canadian consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 169-175, May.
    5. Richard Grimal & Roger Collet & Jean-Loup Madre, 2013. "Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living," Post-Print hal-02162249, HAL.
    6. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    8. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
    9. Fred Mannering & Clifford Winston, 1985. "A Dynamic Empirical Analysis of Household Vehicle Ownership and Utilization," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 215-236, Summer.
    10. Bhat, Chandra R. & Pulugurta, Vamsi, 1998. "A comparison of two alternative behavioral choice mechanisms for household auto ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-75, January.
    11. Kitamura, Ryuichi, 1990. "Panel Analysis in Transportation Planning: An Overview," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt86v0f7zh, University of California Transportation Center.
    12. Ingram, Gregory K. & Zhi Liu, 1999. "Determinants of motorization and road provision," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2042, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Grimal, 2018. "Faut-Il Reduire L'Usage De La Voiture ? Couts Sociaux Et Benefices Environnementaux De Differents Scenarios Economiques Et Technologiques A L'Horizon 2060," Post-Print hal-02164869, HAL.
    2. Richard Grimal, 2019. "Is there a limit to car traffic growth ? Potential demand and convergence paths towards saturation," Post-Print hal-02164984, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quaglione, Davide & Cassetta, Ernesto & Crociata, Alessandro & Marra, Alessandro & Sarra, Alessandro, 2019. "An assessment of the role of cultural capital on sustainable mobility behaviours: Conceptual framework and empirical evidence," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 24-34.
    2. Salon, Deborah, 2009. "Neighborhoods, cars, and commuting in New York City: A discrete choice approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 180-196, February.
    3. François Gardes, 2021. "Endogenous Prices in a Riemannian Geometry Framework," Post-Print halshs-03325414, HAL.
    4. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Incomplete panels and selection bias : A survey," Discussion Paper 1992-7, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Andreas Hatzigeorgiou & Magnus Lodefalk, 2016. "Migrants’ Influence on Firm-level Exports," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 477-497, December.
    6. Le Wen & Sholeh A. Maani, 2019. "Job mismatches and career mobility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(10), pages 1010-1024, February.
    7. Maggie Xiaoyang Chen & Aaditya Mattoo, 2008. "Regionalism in standards: good or bad for trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 838-863, August.
    8. Rosario Crinò, 2010. "Service Offshoring and White-Collar Employment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 595-632.
    9. Nayum, Alim & Klöckner, Christian A. & Prugsamatz, Sunita, 2013. "Influences of car type class and carbon dioxide emission levels on purchases of new cars: A retrospective analysis of car purchases in Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 96-108.
    10. Prieto Suarez, Joaquin, 2021. "Poverty traps and affluence shields: modelling the persistence of income position in Chile," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110719, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Sarah Brown & Jennifer Roberts & Karl Taylor, 2010. "Reservation wages, labour market participation and health," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(3), pages 501-529, July.
    12. Christina Boll & Andreas Lagemann, 2018. "Does Culture Trump Money? Employment and Childcare Use of Migrant and Non-Migrant Mothers of Pre-School Children in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1015, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    13. Massimiliano Bratti & Alfonso Miranda, 2010. "Endogenous Treatment Effects for Count Data Models with Sample Selection or Endogenous Participation," DoQSS Working Papers 10-05, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, revised 10 Dec 2010.
    14. Ooms, Daan & Hall, A.R. Alastair, 2005. "Panel Data Estimation of Labour Supply Equations for Dutch Dairy Farmers," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 234636, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. James Gaughan & Hugh Gravelle & Rita Santos & Luigi Siciliani, 2017. "Long-term care provision, hospital bed blocking, and discharge destination for hip fracture and stroke patients," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 311-331, September.
    16. Groote, Jesper De & Ommeren, Jos Van & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Car ownership and residential parking subsidies: Evidence from Amsterdam," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 25-37.
    17. Cao, Xinyu, 2006. "The Causal Relationship between the Built Environment and Personal Travel Choice: Evidence from Northern California," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt07q5p340, University of California Transportation Center.
    18. Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2018. "A dynamic double hurdle model for remittances: evidence from Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 365-377.
    19. François Gardes & Greg J, Duncan & Patrice Gaubert & Christophe Starzec, 2002. "Panel and Pseudo-Panel Estimation of Cross-Sectional and Time Series Elasticities of Food Consumption : The Case of American and Polish Data," Working Papers 2002-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    20. Amoh-Gyimah, Richard & Aidoo, Eric Nimako, 2013. "Mode of transport to work by government employees in the Kumasi metropolis, Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-43.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02162281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.