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The Dispersion of Age Differences between Partners and the Asymptotic Dynamics of the HIV Epidemic

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  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    () (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - ULR - Université de La Rochelle)

  • Elodie Djemaï

    () (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine, DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme)

  • Arnaud Ducrot

    () (IMB - Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2 - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Bordeaux INP - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this article, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender and age structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We therefore conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Elodie Djemaï & Arnaud Ducrot, 2012. "The Dispersion of Age Differences between Partners and the Asymptotic Dynamics of the HIV Epidemic," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00717322, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00717322 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00717322
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

    Epidemiological models; Modèles épidémiologiques.;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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