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The Dispersion of Age Differences between Partners and the Asymptotic Dynamics of the HIV Epidemic

  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    ()

    (Axe Macroéconomie - CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    ()

    (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - Université de La Rochelle)

  • Elodie Djemaï

    ()

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine, DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD])

  • Arnaud Ducrot

    ()

    (IMB - Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2 - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 - CNRS)

In this article, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender and age structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We therefore conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00717322.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00717322
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00717322
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