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The Dispersion of Age Differences between Partners and the Asymptotic Dynamics of the HIV Epidemic

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Listed:
  • Hippolyte d'Albis
  • Emmanuelle AUGERAUD-VÉRON
  • Elodie DJEMAI
  • Arnaud DUCROT

Abstract

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle AUGERAUD-VÉRON & Elodie DJEMAI & Arnaud DUCROT, 2010. "The Dispersion of Age Differences between Partners and the Asymptotic Dynamics of the HIV Epidemic," LERNA Working Papers 10.06.312, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  • Handle: RePEc:ler:wpaper:10.06.312
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    File URL: http://www2.toulouse.inra.fr/lerna/travaux/cahiers2010/10.06.312.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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