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The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    () (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)

  • Elodie Djemaï

    () (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - ULR - Université de La Rochelle)

  • Arnaud Ducrot

    () (IMB - Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2 - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Bordeaux INP - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Elodie Djemaï & Arnaud Ducrot, 2012. "The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00759489, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00759489
    DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2012.688146
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759489
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    Keywords

    epidemiology; population dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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