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The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic

Listed author(s):
  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    ()

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)

  • Elodie Djemaï

    ()

    (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - ULR - Université de La Rochelle)

  • Arnaud Ducrot

    ()

    (IMB - Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2 - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Bordeaux INP - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number hal-00759489.

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Date of creation: 2012
Publication status: Published in Journal of Biological Dynamics, Taylor & Francis Open, 2012, 6 (2), pp.695-717. <10.1080/17513758.2012.688146>
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00759489
DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2012.688146
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759489
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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