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Bilateral Trade Patterns and Welfare: An Egypt-EU Preferential Trade Agreement

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  • Denise Eby Konan

    () (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Keith E Maskus

Abstract

This paper considers the welfare implications of a discriminatory preferential trading arrangement in a general equilibrium model where imports are differentiated by region of origin and terms of trade are fixed. The relationship between the initial (pre-reform) relative volume of trade with the potential partner and welfare changes is theoretically ambiguous. Applied general equilibrium analysis of Egyptian trade illustrates that potential Egyptian welfare gains from a European PTA are modest. Experiments altering the composition of Egyptian trading patterns show that trade creation and diversion are non-monotonic, concave functions of the benchmark share of trade with the PTA partner. Nonetheless, aggregate welfare gains rise with the initial partner trade share. Thus, in the particular case considered here, the more focused Egypt's trade patterns are on the EU, the more the country would gain from a preferential trading arrangement.

Suggested Citation

  • Denise Eby Konan & Keith E Maskus, 2000. "Bilateral Trade Patterns and Welfare: An Egypt-EU Preferential Trade Agreement," Working Papers 200001, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200001
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/001.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hoekman, Bernard & Konan, Denise, 1999. "Deep Integration, Non-Discrimination and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & Ian Wooton, 1993. "An Alternative Welfare Decomposition for Customs Unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 961-968, November.
    4. Denise Eby Konan & Keith E Maskus, 1997. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Egyptian Trade Liberalization Scenarios," Working Papers 199701, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    5. Maskus, Keith E & Konan, Denise Eby, 1997. "Trade Liberalization in Egypt," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 275-293, October.
    6. Bernard Hoekman & Simeon Djankov, 1996. "The European Union's Mediterranean Free Trade Initiative," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 387-405, July.
    7. Bernard Hoekman & Denise Konan & Keith Maskus, 1998. "An Egypt-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: Economic Incentives and Effects," Working Papers 199802, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    8. Schiff, Maurice, 1996. "Small is beautiful : preferential trade agreements and the impact of country size, market share, efficiency, and trade policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1668, The World Bank.
    9. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2000. "Joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy: the case of Egypt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 365-392, April.
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    11. Denise Eby Konan & Keith E. Maskus, 2012. "Preferential Trade and Welfare with Differentiated Products," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 884-892, November.
    12. Arvind Panagariya, 1996. "The Free Trade Area of the Americas: Good for Latin America?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 485-515, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Denise KONAN & Bernard HOEKMAN, "undated". "Deepening Egypt-US Trade Integration: Economic Implications of Alternative Options," Middle East and North Africa 330400039, EcoMod.
    2. Jeffrey B. Nugent & Abla M. Abdel-Latif, 2010. "A Quiz on the Net Benefits of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the QIZs of Jordan and Egypt," Working Papers 514, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 Jan 2010.

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