The Time Path of the Saving Rate: Hyperbolic Discounting and Short-Term Planning
The standard neoclassical growth model with Cobb-Douglas production predicts a monotonically declining saving rate, when reasonably calibrated. Ample empirical evidence, however, shows that the transition paths of most countries saving rates exhibit a statistically significant hump-shaped pattern. Prior literature shows that CES production may imply a hump-shaped pattern of the saving rate (Gomz, 2008). However, the implied magnitude of the hump falls short of what is seen in empirical data. We introduce two non-standard features of preferences into a neoclassical growth model with CES production: hyperbolic discounting and short planning horizons. We show that, in contrast to the commonly accepted argument, in general (except for the special case of logarithmic utility) a model with hyperbolic discounting is not observationally equivalent to one with exponential discounting. We also show that our framework implies a hump-shaped saving rate dynamics that is consistent with empirical evidence. Hyperbolic discounting turns out to be a major factor explaining the magnitude of the hump of the saving rate path. Numerical simulations employing a generalized class of hyperbolic discount functions, which we term regular discount functions, support the results.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++43 316 380-3440
Fax: ++43 316 380-9520, 9521
Web page: http://volkswirtschaftslehre.uni-graz.at/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www-classic.uni-graz.at/vwlwww/forschung/RePEc/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maddison, Angus, 1992.
" A Long-Run Perspective on Saving,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 181-96.
- Caliendo, Frank & Aadland, David, 2007.
"Short-term planning and the life-cycle consumption puzzle,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1392-1415, April.
- Frank Caliendo & David Aadland, 2004. "Short-term planning and the life-cycle consumption puzzle," Microeconomics 0404003, EconWPA.
- Kent Smetters, 2003.
"The (Interesting) Dynamic Properties of the Neoclassical Growth Model with CES Production,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kent Smetters, 2003. "The (Interesting) Dynamic Properties of the Neoclassical Growth Model with CES Production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 697-707, July.
- Laibson, David, 1997.
"Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-77, May.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997.
"The poverty of nations: a quantitative exploration,"
204, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "The Poverty of Nations: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 5414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl-Josef Koch & Timo Trimborn & Thomas M. Steger, 2005.
"Multi-Dimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure,"
121-05, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
- Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 301-319, June.
- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas M. Steger, 2004. "Multi-dimensional transitional dynamics : a simple numerical procedure," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 04/35, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas Steger, 2006. "Multi-Dimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numberical Procedure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1745, CESifo Group Munich.
- Caliendo, Frank N. & Findley, T. Scott, 2014. "Discount functions and self-control problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 416-419.
- Shafer, Jeffrey R & Elmeskov, Jorgen & Tease, Warren, 1992. " Saving Trends and Measurement Issues," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 155-75.
- T. Findley & Frank Caliendo, 2009. "Short horizons, time inconsistency, and optimal social security," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 487-513, August.
- Hall, Robert E, 1988.
"Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
- Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
- Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
- Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "Understanding Japan's saving rate: the reconstruction hypothesis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 10-25.
- Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson, III & James B. Thomson, 2004. "On SBA-guaranteed lending and economic growth," Working Paper 0403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:grz:wpaper:2014-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael Scholz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.