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Crime Impacts of El Salvador’s Crackdown Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Ángel Santos

    (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Adan Silverio-Murillo

    (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar

    (Business School, Universidad Anahuac)

  • Abel Rodríguez

    (Author-Workplace-Name: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

Abstract

Objective: To examine the impact of El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy on crime. Methods: The identification strategy of this paper exploits the launch of the incarceration policy in El Salvador, which increased the country’s prison population by 150% in just one year, propelling it to the top of global incarceration rankings. The methodology consists of fixed-effects models. Data for homicides comes from the National Civil Police, while data for other crimes comes from El Salvador’s Multipurpose Household Survey. Results: El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy reduced homicides by 42%. Further, evidence suggests that the policy reduced street robberies by 20% and rapes by 62%, but had no measurable impact on assault, larceny, or motor vehicle theft. Conclusion: These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the selective effectiveness of punitive criminal justice strategies. The results suggest that the observed reduction in crime following the policy is primarily driven by incapacitation rather than deterrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ángel Santos & Adan Silverio-Murillo & Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar & Abel Rodríguez, 2026. "Crime Impacts of El Salvador’s Crackdown Policy," Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation 20, School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:gnt:wpaper:20
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    File URL: https://egobiernoytp.tec.mx/sites/default/files/2026-01/crime_impacts_el_savador_crackdown_policy.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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