Unit Roots in Inflation and Aggregation Bias
In this paper, we examine whether UK inflation is characterized by aggregation bias using three sets of increasingly disaggregated inflation data and a battery of univariate and panel unit root tests. Our results support the existence of aggregation bias since while the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected for aggregate inflation, it can be rejected for some of its sectoral components, with the rejection frequencies increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Results from structural break analysis indicate that monetary policy shifts are the main factor behind breaks in UK inflation. The panel results typically indicate that when sectoral inflation rates are pooled the unit root hypothesis can be rejected. Our results have important implications for applied econometric analysis, macroeconomic theory and for the conduct of monetary policy.
|Date of creation:||May 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Adam Smith Building, Glasgow G12 8RT|
Phone: 0141 330 4618
Fax: 0141 330 4940
Web page: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/research/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Franklin R. Edward, 1999. "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 189-210, Spring.
- Tse, Yiuman & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1996. "Common volatility and volatility spillovers between U.S. and Eurodollar interest rates: Evidence from the futures market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 299-312, August.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
- Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2000.
"The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads,"
University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management
qt0zw4f9w6, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2002. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," NBER Working Papers 8990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
- Sun, Tong-sheng & Sundaresan, Suresh & Wang, Ching, 1993. "Interest rate swaps: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-99, August.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Grinblatt, Mark, 1995. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9s13f3zx, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeanette Findlay)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.