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Unit Roots in Inflation and Aggregation Bias

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  • Joseph Byrne
  • Alexandros Kontonikas
  • Alberto Montagnoli

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether UK inflation is characterized by aggregation bias using three sets of increasingly disaggregated inflation data and a battery of univariate and panel unit root tests. Our results support the existence of aggregation bias since while the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected for aggregate inflation, it can be rejected for some of its sectoral components, with the rejection frequencies increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Results from structural break analysis indicate that monetary policy shifts are the main factor behind breaks in UK inflation. The panel results typically indicate that when sectoral inflation rates are pooled the unit root hypothesis can be rejected. Our results have important implications for applied econometric analysis, macroeconomic theory and for the conduct of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2007. "Unit Roots in Inflation and Aggregation Bias," Working Papers 2007_07, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_07
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    File URL: http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_219099_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tse, Yiuman & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1996. "Common volatility and volatility spillovers between U.S. and Eurodollar interest rates: Evidence from the futures market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 299-312, August.
    2. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 113-149.
    3. Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2000. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt0zw4f9w6, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    5. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    6. Franklin R. Edward, 1999. "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 189-210, Spring.
    7. Sun, Tong-sheng & Sundaresan, Suresh & Wang, Ching, 1993. "Interest rate swaps: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-99, August.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The Time-Series Properties Of Uk Inflation: Evidence From Aggregate And Disaggregate Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 33-47, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unit Root; Disaggregation; Structural Breaks; Panel Data;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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