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Preference Erosion: The case of Bangladesh - A SUR-EC-AR Gravity Model of Trade

This paper analyses the impact of preference erosion on Bangladesh’s clothing industry coming from both the ATC quotas phasing-out and the reduction on MFN tariffs under NAMA negotiations. First, it undertakes a numerical exercise to estimate the effects of tariffs reduction in the US and the EU on Bangladesh’s economic performance. Then it uses a SUR-EC-AR gravity model of trade to measure the effects of ATC quotas phasing out and NAMA negotiations on trade pattern. The results suggest that Bangladesh gains from importing countries’ tariffs reduction, independently of ATC implementation. Despite the fact that these results may underestimate the effects of quotas phasing out on T&C trade pattern, the model’s structure presents the advantage of eliminating the aggregation bias problem. It would be interesting to expand the econometric model to include other trade partners and new variables.

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File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIWP18-2007.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 18-2007.

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Length: 89
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision: Aug 2007
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp18-2007
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  1. John Romalis & Mary Amiti, 2006. "Will the Doha Round Lead to Preference Erosion?," IMF Working Papers 06/10, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Hans P. Lankes & Katerina Alexandraki, 2004. "The Impact of Preference Erosionon Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/169, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Peter Egger, 2002. "SUR Estimation of Error Components Models With AR(1) Disturbances and Unobserved Endogenous Effects," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  4. Joseph Francois & B. Hoekman & M. Manchin, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp87, IIIS.
  5. J. Francois & B. Hoekman & M. Manchin, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-073/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Joseph Francois & Will Martin & Vlad Manole, 2005. "Choosing formulas for market access negotiations: efficiency and market access considerations," Chapters, in: Trade Policy Reforms and Development, chapter 5 Edward Elgar.
  7. Jaya Krishnakumar, 2002. "A SUR-EC-AR System Gravity Model of Trade," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  8. Antoine Bouët & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Is Erosion of Tariff Preferences a Serious Concern?," Working Papers 2005-14, CEPII research center.
  9. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  10. Douglas C. Lippoldt & Przemyslaw Kowalski, 2005. "Trade Preference Erosion: Potential Economic Impacts," OECD Trade Policy Papers 17, OECD Publishing.
  11. J. Francois & B. Hoekman & M. Manchin, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-073/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Jörg MAYER, 2004. "Not Totally Naked: Textiles And Clothing Trade In A Quota Free Environment," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 176, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  13. J. Francois & B. Hoekman & M. Manchin, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-073/2, Tinbergen Institute.
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