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Does Intra-Africa Regional Trade Cooperation Enhance Africa’s Export Survival?

In this paper, I use a stratified Cox Proportional Hazard Model to econometrically evaluate the effects of intra-Africa regional trade cooperation and other underlying factors on Africa`s export survival. Using a highly disaggregated dataset of bilateral trade flows at HS 6 digit level for 49 African countries for the period 1995 to 2009, I obtain 3 key main empirical results. First, intra-Africa regional trade cooperation do increase the likelihood of Africa`s export survival. The results show that the depth of regional integration matters on lowering Africa`s export hazard rates relative to countries that are not in any regional cooperation. Second, I find evidence that supports the “learning by export hypothesis”. That is export experience within regional as well as rest of the world markets increases the likelihood of Africa`s export survival. Finally, results suggests that infrastructure related trade frictions such as costs to export, time to export, and customs procedures to export as well as weak export supporting institutions have a negative effect on Africa`s export survival. Similarly macroeconomic developments particularly exchange rate volatility, financial underdevelopment, “inappropriate” foreign direct investment hurt chances of an African export survival. The results also show that interaction effects between regional integration initiatives and a variety of these trade frictions namely: costs to export, time to export and customs procedures effects on hazard rates diminish in significance with the depth of regional integration over time.

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File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP16-2012.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 16-2012.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 13 Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp16-2012
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  1. James E. Rauch & Joel Watson, 1999. "Starting Small in an Unfamiliar Environment," NBER Working Papers 7053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Treb Allen, 2012. "Information Frictions in Trade," 2012 Meeting Papers 125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. James E. Rauch, 2007. "Development Through Synergistic Reform," NBER Working Papers 13170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2010. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 474-499, December.
  6. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
  7. Wood, Adrian & Mayer, Jorg, 2001. "Africa's Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 369-94, May.
  8. Debaere, Peter & Mostashari, Shalah, 2010. "Do tariffs matter for the extensive margin of international trade? An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 163-169, July.
  9. Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Luca David Opromolla, 2008. "A Theory of Entry and Exit into Exports Markets," Working Papers w200820, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  10. Michael Faye & John McArthur & Jeffrey Sachs & Thomas Snow, 2004. "The Challenges Facing Landlocked Developing Countries," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 31-68.
  11. Priya Ranjan & Jae Young Lee, 2007. "Contract Enforcement And International Trade," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 191-218, 07.
  12. Freund, Caroline & Rocha, Nadia, 2010. "What constrains Africa's exports ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5184, The World Bank.
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