IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gii/giihei/heidwp05-2026.html

Missing firm growth in developing countries: a firm-level analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hicham Doghmi

    (Central Bank of Morocco)

  • Kamal Lahlou

    (Central Bank of Morocco)

Abstract

Missing firm growth in developing countries: a firm-level analysisWhat are the key determinants of firm growth in developing countries? Using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) spanning 2010–2024, we examine the impact of three distinct categories of factors on firm growth dynamics: (1) firm-level characteristics, (2) contextual factors, and (3) access to finance. Our analysis reveals that each category is essential, with both internal capabilities and external conditions playing complementary roles in shaping firm growth trajectories. We find that firms with stronger technological capabilities achieve significantly higher growth. In contrast, firms facing greater exposure to political instability and financing constraints experience markedly slower growth, with small firms being significantly more vulnerable to such constraints than large firms. Access to bank financing at the firm and sector levels is associated with robust growth gains. These findings are not driven by omitted variable bias or reverse causality; they remain robust across a wide range of sensitivity analyses and estimation strategies, including matching techniques and an instrumental variable (IV) strategy. Exploring the mechanism underlying the adverse effects of the business environment, we show that political instability and financing constraints impede the development of firms’ technological capabilities, which in turn undermines their growth potential. Our results underscore the importance of both firm-level capabilities and the broader enabling environment in fostering private sector development in developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hicham Doghmi & Kamal Lahlou, 2026. "Missing firm growth in developing countries: a firm-level analysis," IHEID Working Papers 05-2026, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp05-2026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP05-2026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James R. Tybout, 2000. "Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do, and Why?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 11-44, March.
    2. Marco Vivarelli, 2014. "Innovation, Employment and Skills in Advanced and Developing Countries: A Survey of Economic Literature," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 123-154.
    3. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Informality and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 109-126, Summer.
    4. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development & European Investment Bank & World Bank Group, 2016. "What's Holding Back the Private Sector in MENA?," World Bank Publications - Reports 24738, The World Bank Group.
    5. Xavier Cirera & Leonard Sabetti, 2019. "The effects of innovation on employment in developing countries: evidence from enterprise surveys," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(1), pages 161-176.
    6. Arne Bigsten & Mans Söderbom, 2006. "What Have We Learned from a Decade of Manufacturing Enterprise Surveys in Africa?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 241-265.
    7. Betz, Frank & Ravasan, Farshad R., 2016. "Collateral regimes and missing job creation in the MENA region," EIB Working Papers 2016/03, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    8. Magnus Henrekson & Dan Johansson, 2010. "Gazelles as job creators: a survey and interpretation of the evidence," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 227-244, September.
    9. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-674, August.
    10. Nicholas Bloom & Helena Schweiger & John Van Reenen, 2012. "The land that lean manufacturing forgot?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 20(4), pages 593-635, October.
    11. Nicholas Bloom & Aprajit Mahajan & David McKenzie & John Roberts, 2010. "Why Do Firms in Developing Countries Have Low Productivity?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 619-623, May.
    12. Zhaoyang Gu & Song Tang & Donghui Wu, 2020. "The Political Economy of Labor Employment Decisions: Evidence from China," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4703-4725, October.
    13. Getinet Haile & Ilina Srour & Marco Vivarelli, 2017. "Imported technology and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, April.
    14. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2014. "The Life Cycle of Plants in India and Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1035-1084.
    15. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2005. "Financial and Legal Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 137-177, February.
    16. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    17. Abadie, Alberto & Imbens, Guido W., 2011. "Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11.
    18. Kevin Donovan & Will Jianyu Lu & Todd Schoellman, 2023. "Labor Market Dynamics and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2287-2325.
    19. Fisman, Raymond & Svensson, Jakob, 2007. "Are corruption and taxation really harmful to growth? Firm level evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 63-75, May.
    20. Distinguin, Isabelle & Rugemintwari, Clovis & Tacneng, Ruth, 2016. "Can Informal Firms Hurt Registered SMEs’ Access to Credit?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 18-40.
    21. Justin van der Sluis & Mirjam van Praag & Wim Vijverberg, 2005. "Entrepreneurship Selection and Performance: A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Education in Developing Economies," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 19(2), pages 225-261.
    22. Kaufmann,Daniel & Kraay, Aart C., 2024. "The Worldwide Governance Indicators : Methodology and 2024 Update," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10952, The World Bank.
    23. Stam, Wouter & Arzlanian, Souren & Elfring, Tom, 2014. "Social capital of entrepreneurs and small firm performance: A meta-analysis of contextual and methodological moderators," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 152-173.
    24. Wouter Stam & Souren Arzlanian & Tom Elfring, 2014. "Social capital of entrepreneurs and small firm performance : A meta-analysis of contextual and methodological moderators," Post-Print hal-04850409, HAL.
    25. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
    26. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    27. Ibrahima Camara & Rasmané Ouedraogo & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2023. "Unbearable Costs: When Is Inflation Impeding Job Creation? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2023/046, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Islam, Asif Mohammed & Moosa, Dalal Hasan Sharif Sayed & Saliola, Federica, 2022. "Jobs Undone: Reshaping the Role of Governments toward Markets and Workers in the Middle East and North Africa," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 33863304, The World Bank.
    29. De Loecker, Jan, 2007. "Do exports generate higher productivity? Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 69-98, September.
    30. Meghana Ayyagari & Pedro Juarros & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Sandeep Singh, 2021. "Access to Finance and Job Growth: Firm-Level Evidence across Developing Countries [Big constraints to small firms’ growth? Business environment and employment growth across firms]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1473-1496.
    31. Kersten, Renate & Harms, Job & Liket, Kellie & Maas, Karen, 2017. "Small Firms, large Impact? A systematic review of the SME Finance Literature," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 330-348.
    32. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    33. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    34. Isabelle Distinguin & Clovis Rugemintwari & Ruth Tacneng, 2016. "Can Informal Firms Hurt Registered SMEs’ Access to Credit?," Post-Print hal-04881158, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Quatraro & Marco Vivarelli, 2015. "Drivers of Entrepreneurship and Post-entry Performance of Newborn Firms in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 277-305.
    2. Brancati,Emanuele-000592383 & Di Maio,Michele & Rahman,Aminur, 2022. "Jobs, Access to Credit, and Informality in MENA Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10061, The World Bank.
    3. Brancati, Emanuele & Di Maio, Michele & Rahman, Aminur, 2024. "Finance, informal competition, and expectations: A firm-level analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Marco Vivarelli, 2013. "Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 22(6), pages 1453-1495, December.
    5. Florian Léon, 2022. "The elusive quest for high-growth firms in Africa: when other metrics of performance say nothing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 225-246, January.
    6. Vivarelli, Marco, 2012. "Drivers of entrepreneurship and post-entry performance : microeconomic evidence from advanced and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6245, The World Bank.
    7. Francesco Quatraro & Marco Vivarelli, 2013. "Entry and Post-Entry Dynamics in Developing Countries," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    8. Quatraro, Francesco & Vivarelli, Marco, 2013. "Entrepreneurship In A Developing Country Context," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 201314, University of Turin.
    9. Oznur Ozdamar & Eleftherios Giovanis & Sahizer Samuk, 2020. "State business relations and the dynamics of job flows in Egypt and Turkey," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 519-558, December.
    10. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Fabio Pieri & Diego Rodriguez, 2022. "One swallow does not make a summer: episodes and persistence in high growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1517-1544, March.
    11. Chiara Coluzzi & Annalisa Ferrando & Carmen Martínez-Carrascal, 2009. "Financing obstacles and growth: An analysis for euro area non-financial corporations," Working Papers 0836, Banco de España.
    12. Nwakego Eyisi & Hyacinth E. Ichoku & Asma Kanwal, 2024. "Front-end Innovation and Top Income Inequality: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 1437-1481, March.
    13. Florian Leon, 2019. "The elusive quest for high- growth firms in Africa: The (lack of) growth persistence in Senegal," Working Papers hal-02493326, HAL.
    14. Brian McCaig & Nina Pavcnik, 2021. "Entry and Exit of Informal Firms and Development," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(3), pages 540-575, September.
    15. George R.G. Clarke & Hinh T. Dinh, 2012. "Performance of Manufacturing Firms in Africa : An Empirical Analysis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11959, April.
    16. Mohammad Amin, 2023. "Does competition from informal firms hurt job creation by formal manufacturing SMEs in developing and emerging countries? Evidence using firm-level survey data," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1659-1681, April.
    17. Vivarelli, Marco, 2012. "Entrepreneurship in Advanced and Developing Countries: A Microeconomic Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 6513, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Dorgyles C.M. Kouakou, 2025. "High-quality financial statements, credit constraints, and labor productivity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(4), pages 1885-1897.
    19. Alexander Coad, 2007. "Firm Growth: A Survey," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-03, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    20. Alex Coad, 2018. "Firm age: a survey," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 13-43, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp05-2026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dorina Dobre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieheich.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.