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Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Polish Foreign Trade

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  • Tomasz Brodzicki

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk)

Abstract

The goal of this article is to investigate the determinants of the pattern of bilateral trade flows of Poland with its major trade partners with the use of trade gravity model approach. The analysis is carried out for 181 trade partners of Poland in the period 1999-2006. In the basic version of the trade gravity model we take into account only the standard factors as suggested by the literature of the subject. In its extended version we control for several additional factors including: quality of institutions, impact of regional and bilateral trade agreements or exchange rate volatility. In order to obtain unbiased results we utilize the Prais-Winsten regression with Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE). In most of the cases the coefficients for the traditional gravity determinants are economically sensible and their impact on the dependant variable is statistically significant. The impact of market size, distance or quality of institutions are in line with our expectations. The role of migrants as proxied by the size of Polish diaspora is rather large. Increase in the size of Polish diaspora of 1 per cent increases bilateral trade by approx. 0.2 per cent. Foreign exchange rate volatility has an adversely negative impact on the trade flows. The unrealized potential of a membership in the eurozone could be judged relatively high. The results concerning trade agreements are however rather unanticipated.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Brodzicki, 2009. "Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Polish Foreign Trade," Working Papers of Economics of European Integration Division 0901, The Univeristy of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Economics of European Integration Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:gda:wpaper:0901
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    File URL: http://gnu.univ.gda.pl/~keie/aio14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Deluna, Roperto Jr, 2013. "Trade Performance and Potential of the Philippines: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model," MPRA Paper 51677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tomasz Brodzicki, 2009. "Product variety and the export pattern of Poland 1999-2006," Working Papers of Economics of European Integration Division 0903, The Univeristy of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Economics of European Integration Division.
    3. Tomasz Brodzicki, 2011. "Handel zagraniczny panstw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej. Zmiany strukturalne i rola handlu wewnatrzgaleziowego," Working Papers of Economics of European Integration Division 1104, The Univeristy of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Economics of European Integration Division.
    4. Vdovychenko, Artem & Zubrytskyi, Artur, 2016. "Effects of fiscal consolidation on exports in Ukraine," MPRA Paper 70722, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2016.
    5. Joanna Kuczewska & Maciej Krzeminski, 2011. "Regional constructed advantages – case of Pomeranian Region in Poland," Working Papers of Economics of European Integration Division 1105, The Univeristy of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Economics of European Integration Division.
    6. Deluna, Roperto Jr & Cruz, Edgardo, 2014. "Philippine Export Efficiency and Potential: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model," MPRA Paper 53580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tinatin Akhvlediani & Katarzyna Śledziewska, . "The Impacts of Common Commercial Policy on Export Performances of Visegrad Countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-16.
    8. Tinatin Akhvlediani & Katarzyna Śledziewska, 2017. "The Impacts of Common Commercial Policy on Export Performances of Visegrad Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(1), pages 3-18.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade gravity model; Poland; panel data; PCES;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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