What has happened to growth in Latin America
Growth in the first post-reform decade in Latin America has been disappointing, largely because of a severe slowdown after 1995 in the countries in South America. Per capita income grew at only .9% per year between 1995 and 1999 compared to 2.7% for 1950-80 and 1.5% for the nineties as a whole. What has gone wrong? The paper finds that neither falling investment, volatile capital inflows nor the implementation of structural reforms is the problem. Indeed relative growth performance across countries is positively related to the amount of reform they adopted. Instead the problem seems to relate to a significant reduction in the growth rate of exports since 1997. Mexico, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic did well, but every country in South America has suffered a reduction in exports with the exception of Colombia where they were constant. Partly that is because the countries that are the main markets for Latin exports are not growing as fast as they were, but South America is also losing market share in those countries. The basic assumption of the new reform growth model is that exports will be a significant engine of growth. It does not seem to be working out that way for South America. It is not clear what the cause of the export slowdown is, but no export-led growth strategy is going to work if it cannot produce an export growth rate higher than 2.3% per year.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006|
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz & San, Nu Nu, 1998.
"Rice policy, trade, and exchange rate changes in Indonesia: A general equilibrium analysis,"
Journal of Asian Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 393-423.
- Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz & San, Nu Nu, 1998. "Rice policy, trade, and exchange rate changes in Indonesia: a general equilibrium analysis," TMD discussion papers 27, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Cattaneo, Andrea & Robinson, Sherman, 2000. "Empirical models, rules, and optimization," TMD discussion papers 53, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Robinson, Sherman & Gehlhar, Clemen G., 1995. "Land, water, and agriculture in Egypt: the economywide impact of policy reform," TMD discussion papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.