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Opportunities and challenges in agriculture and garments: a general equilibrium analysis of the Bangladesh economy

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Dorosh, Paul A.
  • Fontana, Marzia
  • Zohir, Sajjad
  • El-Said, Moataz
  • Lungren, Christen

Abstract

"For the past two decades, Bangladesh has enjoyed steady growth in per capita incomes enabling a significant reduction in poverty. An increase in rice productivity, achieved through a combination of improved seeds, increased fertilizer use, and public and private investments in irrigation, played a major role in the increase in incomes. Among the other major factors were a large expansion in textile exports, made possible by changes in world demand, Bangladesh trade liberalization, and macro-economic stability; and increases in workers remittances. In order to accelerate or even maintain income growth rates and poverty reduction, future policies must be carefully designed to capture the benefits and minimize the risks of international trade and a constantly changing international environment. A proper assessment of the impact of such policies and economic developments on the poor requires a comprehensive framework to analyze interactions between different sectors as well as linkages between macro and micro levels. In this paper we construct a social accounting matrix for 1999/2000 and develop a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) with special treatment of the rice and wheat sectors. We then present simulations of the effects of (i) rice productivity shocks, (ii) a decline in the world rice price, and (iii) a reduction in RMG exports, reflecting an end to preferential access to RMG markets for Bangladesh goods.... Overall, these simulations illustrate the importance of trade policy and links between Bangladesh and the world economy. International trade offers the potential to prevent a decline in real prices of rice if productivity of paddy production increases and to benefit from increased export earnings. It has also permitted a large increase in RMG export earnings. However, changes in international markets could threaten welfare of some Bangladesh households, as well, as illustrated by the simulations of lower import prices of rice that could sharply reduce farmer incomes, and of a decline in textile export earnings that could sharply reduce female urban employment and urban household incomes....[T]hese simulations show that the Bangladesh economy and household incomes are clearly linked with the global economy, particularly through foodgrain trade and the RMG sector. Efforts to alleviate poverty and raise the incomes of the poor should not neglect these linkages, particularly in cases where these poverty alleviation interventions are large enough to have major effects on the real exchange rate and female labor earnings." Author's Abstract.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Dorosh, Paul A. & Fontana, Marzia & Zohir, Sajjad & El-Said, Moataz & Lungren, Christen, 2002. "Opportunities and challenges in agriculture and garments: a general equilibrium analysis of the Bangladesh economy," TMD discussion papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fontana, Marzia & Wood, Adrian, 2000. "Modeling the Effects of Trade on Women, at Work and at Home," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1173-1190, July.
    2. Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz & San, Nu Nu, 1998. "Rice policy, trade, and exchange rate changes in Indonesia: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 393-423.
    3. Fontana, Marzia & Wobst, Peter & Dorosh, Paul A., 2001. "Macro policies and the food sector in Bangladesh: a general equilibrium analysis," TMD discussion papers 73, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Robinson, Sherman & Lofgren, Hans & Ahmed, Hashim A., 2006. "Growth Strategies to Reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Ethiopia," Conference papers 331522, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Levin, Jörgen & Sayeed, Yeasmin, 2014. "Welfare impact of broadening VAT by exempting local food markets: The case of Bangladesh," Working Papers 2014:7, Örebro University, School of Business.
    3. Mahjabeen, Rubana, 2008. "Microfinancing in Bangladesh: Impact on households, consumption and welfare," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1083-1092.
    4. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Bhuiyan, Nazmul & Begum, Ismat Ara & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2012. "Tracing the Poverty Impact of Market Reforms in Bangladesh," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 123758, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Muhammad Mahboob Ali & Victoria Wise, 2010. "Macro Economy of a Least Developed Country: The Case of Bangladesh," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2010-02, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Feb 2010.
    6. Tanjinul Hoque Mollah & Sharmin Shishir & Wahid Ullah & Takaaki Nihei, 2019. "Assessing NGOs micro-credit programs: a geo-spatial and socio-economic scenario from rural Bangladesh," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 79-99, June.
    7. Ahmed, Nazneen & Peerlings, Jack H.M., 2009. "Addressing Workers' Rights in the Textile and Apparel Industries: Consequences for the Bangladesh Economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 661-675, March.
    8. Bussolo, Maurizio & Niimi, Yoko, 2005. "Do the Poor benefit from Regional Trade Pacts? An Illustration from the Central America Free Trade Agreement in Nicaragua," Conference papers 331331, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Khondker, Bazlul H. & Raihan, Selim, 2004. "Welfare and Poverty Impacts of Policy Reforms in Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach," Centre on Regulation and Competition (CRC) Working papers 30588, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).
    10. N.C. Saxena & Tim Conway & Cecilia Luttrell & Edward Anderson & John Farrington & Gerard Gill, 2016. "Food Security and the Millennium Development Goal on Hunger in Asia," Working Papers id:11094, eSocialSciences.

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