China's agrifood system: Structure and transformation, 2012–2023

This study analyzes the historical performance, evolutionary trends, and future opportunities and challenges of China’s agrifood system (AFS) from 2012 to 2023. By constructing multi-year social accounting matrices (SAMs), the study quantifies the economic scale and structural characteristics of the AFS, as well as its historical contribution to broader economic transformation and growth. Utilizing the China Agrifood System Model, the study evaluates the effectiveness of productivity enhancements across different value chains in promoting multidimensional development goals, such as GDP growth, job creation, and poverty eradication. The findings indicate that the transformation of the AFS is a core component of China’s economic transformation. Although the AFS’s share of the national economy has declined during industrialization, its contribution to inclusive economic transformation remains substantial. This continued importance is closely linked to profound structural shifts within the sector, as value creation has increasingly moved from primary production toward downstream segments such as processing, trade, and food services. General equilibrium simulations indicate that some agricultural sectors, including maize, vegetables, and fisheries, generate strong multiplier effects on non-agricultural employment, helping to absorb labor and alleviate transition pressures. The study concludes that continuously optimizing the internal structure of the AFS and strengthening integrated value chain synergies are critical pathways for addressing future resource and environmental constraints while achieving sustainable and inclusive development.