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Bounded rationality and parameters’ uncertainty in a simple monetary policy model

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  • Domenico Colucci

    (Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni - Università degli Studi di Firenze)

  • Vincenzo Valori

    (Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni - Università degli Studi di Firenze)

Abstract

We study a simple monetary model in which a central bank faces a boundedly rational private sector and has the goal of stabilizing inflation. The system’s dynamics is generated by the interaction of the expectations about inflation of the various agents involved. A modest degree of heterogeneity in such expectations is found to have interesting consequences, in particular when the central bank is uncertain about the relevant behavioral parameters. We find that a simple heuristic based on mean and variance of the distribution of behavioural parameters stabilizes the system for a wide parametric region.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2012. "Bounded rationality and parameters’ uncertainty in a simple monetary policy model," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2012-03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:flo:wpaper:2012-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2011. "Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: Does heterogeneity matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1307-1321, August.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Colucci, D. & Valori, V., 2006. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: A comparison," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 653-670.
    4. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 1-49.
    5. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    7. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2008. "Asset Price Dynamics When Behavioural Heterogeneity Varies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 3-20, September.
    9. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 65-81.
    10. Bischi, Gian-Italo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Global Stability Of Inflation Target Policies With Adaptive Agents," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 148-179, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    inflation targeting; monetary policy; adaptive expectations; heterogeneous agents;
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