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A test of the intertemporal asset pricing model

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  • Rajnish Mehra
  • Edward C. Prescott

Abstract

Restrictions that general equilibrium theory place upon average returns are found to be strongly violated by the U.S. data in the 1889–1978 period. This result is robust to model specification and measurement problems. We conclude that equilibrium models which are not Arrow-Debreu economies are needed to rationalize the large average equity premium that prevailed during the last 90 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "A test of the intertemporal asset pricing model," Staff Report 81, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:81
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    2. Prescott, Edward C & Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1972. "A Note on Price Systems in Infinite Dimensional Space," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(2), pages 416-422, June.
    3. Brown, Donald J & Lewis, Lucinda M, 1981. "Myopic Economic Agents," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 359-368, March.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    5. Edward C. Prescott & Rajnish Mehra, 2005. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case Of Homogeneous Households," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 11, pages 357-371 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 1984. "Comparative Dynamics of an Equilibrium Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 491-508.
    7. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf, 1982. "The Structure of Social Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 648, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Kenneth B. Dunn & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1984. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Nonseparable Utilityand Duriability of Goods," NBER Working Papers 1415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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