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Geopolitical Distance and Targeted Trade: Evidence from Product-Level Export Controls

Author

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  • Bontu Ankit Patro
  • Ana Maria Santacreu

Abstract

Trade policy in advanced economies is closely intertwined with concerns about technology and geopolitical rivalry. Using product-level data on export-related trade interventions, we characterize how contemporary export-side interventions are allocated across products, destinations, and bilateral trade relationships. We show that export controls are broad in regulatory scope but economically concentrated on high-value trade flows. Export controls disproportionately target high-technology products and economically important trade relationships, while geopolitical distance shapes their allocation in a nonlinear manner, with the strongest associations for high-technology trade between geopolitical rivals. Finally, a decomposition of targeting patterns shows that modern export controls are organized primarily around products rather than destinations, consistent with a technology-centered regulatory framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Bontu Ankit Patro & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2026. "Geopolitical Distance and Targeted Trade: Evidence from Product-Level Export Controls," Working Papers 2026-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:103525
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2026.014
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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