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Sustaining International Rules in a Multipolar World

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilia Carvalho
  • Nicolas Goulart
  • Daniel Monte
  • Emanuel Ornelas

Abstract

We study the sustainability of international trading rules in a multipolar world. A rules-based equilibrium is shaped by three forces. A static temptation to exploit market power undermines cooperation, while two dynamic forces support it: the efficiency gains from rules and the cost of reestablishing the regime once a country becomes hegemonic. When multipolarity is short-lived and involves few co-leaders, a strong enough prospect of future hegemony ensures rules cooperation. However, in a more fragmented world, the sustainability of rules is more likely if shared leadership is expected to persist, to ensure long-lasting efficiency gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia Carvalho & Nicolas Goulart & Daniel Monte & Emanuel Ornelas, 2026. "Sustaining International Rules in a Multipolar World," CESifo Working Paper Series 12395, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12395
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keohane, Robert O., 1982. "The demand for international regimes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 325-355, April.
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    4. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger & Ali Yurukoglu, 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of Multiparty Tariff Negotiations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1595-1631, July.
    5. Becko, John & Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 2025. "Optimal Tariffs with Geopolitical Alignment," CEPR Discussion Papers 20571, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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