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Rushing into American Dream? House Prices, Timing of Homeownership, and Adjustment of Consumer Credit

  • Agarwal, Sumit


    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Hu, Luojia

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Huang, Xing


    (University of California, Berkeley)

In this paper we use a large panel of individuals from Consumer Credit Panel dataset to study the timing of homeownership as a function of credit constraints and expectations of future house price. Our panel data allows us to track individuals over time and we model the transition probability of their first home purchase. We find that in MSAs with highest quartile house price growth, the median individual become homeowners earlier by 5 years in their lifecycle compared to MSAs with lowest quartile house price growth. The result suggests that the effect of expectation dominates the effect of credit constraints and high price growth leads individuals to purchase home earlier. We further study other credit/loan behaviors around first-home purchases for young and old buyers. We find that younger buyers make more adjustments in their finances after the purchase– taking out more debt/credit, and yet they do not appear to experience larger increase in delinquency than older buyers.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-2013-13.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2013-13
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  1. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Neale Mahoney & Johannes Stroebel, 2013. "Regulating Consumer Financial Products: Evidence from Credit Cards," NBER Working Papers 19484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Martin Gervais, 2011. "Why Has Home Ownership Fallen Among The Young?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(3), pages 883-912, 08.
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  5. Daniel K. Fetter, 2013. "How Do Mortgage Subsidies Affect Home Ownership? Evidence from the Mid-century GI Bills," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 111-47, May.
  6. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 2-20.
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  8. Denise DiPasquale & Edward L. Glaeser, 1998. "Incentives and Social Capital: Are Homeowners Better Citizens?," NBER Working Papers 6363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2011. "The Role of Securitization in Mortgage Renegotiation," Working Paper Series 2011-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  10. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-occupied housing as a hedge against rent risk," Working Papers 05-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  12. Laibson, David I. & Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John C. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life-Cycle with Implications for Regulation," Scholarly Articles 4554335, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Andra Ghent, 2014. "Are Young Borrowers Bad Borrowers? Evidence from the Credit CARD Act of 2009," 2014 Meeting Papers 130, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Orazio Attanasio & Renata Bottazzi & Hamish Low & Lars Nesheim & Matthew Wakefield, 2012. "Modelling the Demand for Housing over the Lifecycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
  15. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2006. "Expanding credit access: Using randomized supply decisions to estimate the impacts," Natural Field Experiments 00281, The Field Experiments Website.
  16. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2012. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," NBER Working Papers 18311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel Sullivan, 1992. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 92-11, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  18. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-56, August.
  19. Morse, Adair, 2011. "Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 28-44, October.
  20. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. James Sullivan, 2005. "Borrowing during unemployment: unsecured debt as a safety net," Proceedings 958, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  22. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
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