IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/101716.html

Optimal Fiscal Policy Under Endogenous Disaster Risk: How to Avoid Wars?

Author

Abstract

We examine the role of government investment in defense capital as a deterrence tool. Using an optimal fiscal policy framework with endogenous disaster risk, we allow for an endogenous determination of geopolitical risk and defense capacity, which we discipline using the Geopolitical Risk Index. We show both analytically and quantitatively that financing defense primarily through debt, rather than taxation, is optimal. Debt issuance mitigates present tax distortions but exacerbates them in the future, especially in wartime. However, since additional defense capital deters future wars, the expected tax distortions decline as well, making debt financing a welfare-improving strategy. Quantitatively, the optimal defense financing in the presence of heightened risk involves a twice higher share of debt and backloading of tax distortions compared to other types of government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Vytautas Valaitis & Alessandro Villa, 2025. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Under Endogenous Disaster Risk: How to Avoid Wars?," Working Paper Series WP 2025-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:101716
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2025-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2025-13
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21033/wp-2025-13?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
    2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steve Ambler & Ali Dib & Nooman Rebei, 2003. "Nominal Rigidities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Structural Model of a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 03-29, Bank of Canada.
    2. Vladimir V. Dashkeev & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2023. "Tax systems and public borrowing limits in a fiscal union," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(2), pages 351-395, April.
    3. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "A set of estimated fiscal rules for a cross-section of countries: Stabilization and consolidation through which instruments?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 184-198.
    4. Perri, Fabrizio, 2001. "The role of fiscal policy in Japan: a quantitative study," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-404, December.
    5. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    6. Nooman Rebei, 2004. "Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 04-41, Bank of Canada.
    7. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    8. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    9. Cloyne, James S, 2011. "Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes," MPRA Paper 41689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alex Clymo & Andrea Lanteri & Alessandro Villa, 2023. "Capital and Labor Taxes with Costly State Contingency," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 943-964, December.
    11. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    12. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    13. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    14. Bhattarai, Keshab & Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid, 2017. "Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 321-338.
    15. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas, 2017. "¿Cuánto tributan efectivamente el consumo, el trabajo y el capital en Colombia?," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 47(1 y 2), pages 97-135, December.
    16. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2009. "Macroeconomic Implications of Alternative Tax Regimes: The Case of Greece," Working Papers 97, Bank of Greece.
    17. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    18. Ferraro, Domenico & Ghazi, Soroush & Peretto, Pietro F., 2020. "Implications of tax policy for innovation and aggregate productivity growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. IWATA Yasuharu, 2009. "Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Japanese Economy: Do Non-Ricardian Households Explain All?," ESRI Discussion paper series 216, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 141-194, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:101716. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.