IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2025-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment

Author

Abstract

This paper reviews recent academic studies to assess the implications of adopting a shortfalls, rather than a deviations, approach to pursuing maximum employment. Model-based simulations from these studies suggest three main findings. First, shortfalls rules generate inflationary pressure relative to deviations rules, which offsets downward pressure on inflation stemming from the presence of the effective lower bound. Second, since monetary policy leans against these inflationary pressures, a shortfalls rule implies a limited effect on average outcomes in the labor market. Finally, studies suggest that monetary policy can offset higher-than-desired average inflation under a shortfalls rule by leaning more strongly against deviations of inflation from the 2 percent objective, thereby keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Bundick & Isabel Cairó & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2025. "Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-68
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2025.068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2025068pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2025.068?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    2. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karadi, Peter & Nakov, Anton, 2021. "Effectiveness and addictiveness of quantitative easing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1096-1117.
    2. Pathberiya, Lasitha R.C., 2024. "Monetary policy rules and zero lower bound on nominal interest rates in a cost-channel economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    5. Brito Paulo & Marini Giancarlo & Piergallini Alessandro, 2016. "House prices and monetary policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 251-277, June.
    6. Sniekers, F.J.T., 2013. "Endogenous Beveridge cycles and the volatility of unemployment," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    7. Uribe, Martin, 2006. "A fiscal theory of sovereign risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1857-1875, November.
    8. Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-266.
    9. Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably Too Little, Certainly Too Late. An Assessment of the Juncker Investment Plan," PSE Working Papers hal-03459360, HAL.
    10. Jean-Pascal Bénassy & Michel Guillard, 2005. "The Taylor Principle and Global Determinacy in a Non-Ricardian World," Documents de recherche 05-26, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    11. Bernardino Adão & Pedro Teles, 2007. "Ensuring Price Stability with an Interest Rate Rule," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. James Bullard, 2016. "Permazero," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 415-429, Spring/Su.
      • James B. Bullard, 2016. "Permazero," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(2).
      • James B. Bullard, 2015. "Permazero," Speech 256, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Nika Lazaryan & Thomas A. Lubik, 2019. "Global dynamics in a search and matching model of the labor market," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(2), pages 461-497, September.
    14. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    15. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    16. Arifovic, Jasmina & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2018. "Learning to live in a liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 120-136.
    17. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2002. "Chaotic Interest-Rate Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 72-78, May.
    18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    19. Jordi Galí & J. David López Salido & Javier Vallés, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb consumers and the design of interest rate rules," Working Papers 0320, Banco de España.
    20. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    21. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.