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From Bank Lending Standards to Bank Credit Conditions: An SVAR Approach

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Abstract

This paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model—identified with an external monetary policy instrument and sign restrictions—to derive a measure of bank credit conditions from changes in bank lending standards. The model incorporates data on interest rates, bank credit, and survey-based measures of bank lending standards to identify monetary policy, credit demand, and credit supply shocks. Using these identified shocks, we construct a novel measure of bank credit conditions that corresponds to the component of credit growth that would occur if credit demand remained unchanged, reflecting solely the impacts of monetary policy and credit supply shocks. Using this measure, we find that credit supply–driven changes in bank credit conditions have a stronger impact on real outcomes in the euro area, whereas monetary policy–driven changes play a larger role in the U.S. economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vihar Dalal & Daniel A. Dias & Pinar Uysal, 2025. "From Bank Lending Standards to Bank Credit Conditions: An SVAR Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-55
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2025.055
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2025055pap.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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