Effects of monetary policy shocks across time and across sectors
Recent empirical research by Olivei and Tenreyro (2007) demonstrates that the effect of monetary policy shocks on output and prices depends on the shock's timing: In the United States, a monetary policy shock that takes place in the first half of the year has a larger effect on output than on prices, while the opposite is true in the second half of the year. Olivei and Tenreyro argue that this finding reflects the fact that a greater fraction of wage rates are re-contracted in the second half of the year, implying that wages (and prices) are less flexible in the first half. In this paper, I assess this explanation in light of several additional empirical results. Most importantly, I demonstrate that within-year differences in the responses of output and prices following a monetary policy shock are not more pronounced in the service-producing sector, where labor costs represent a larger fraction of total production costs. I also find that movements in prices following a monetary shock tend to lead wage changes. These and other empirical results suggest that something other than uneven wage adjustment might be responsible for the differential within-year effect of monetary policy shocks that Olivei and Tenreyro document.
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- Giovanni P. Olivei & Silvana Tenreyro, 2004.
"The timing of monetary policy shocks,"
04-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Giovanni Olivei & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The timing of monetary policy shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Giovanni Olivei & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Timing of Monetary Policy Shocks," CEP Discussion Papers dp0725, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Olivei, Giovanni & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2006. "The Timing of Monetary Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 5716, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giovanni Olivei & Silvana Tenreyro, 2008.
"Wage Setting Patterns and Monetary Policy: International Evidence,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0872, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Olivei, Giovanni & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2010. "Wage-setting patterns and monetary policy: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 785-802, October.
- Giovanni Olivei & Silvana Tenreyro, 2008. "Wage setting patterns and monetary policy: international evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19572, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Giovanni P. Olivei & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Wage setting patterns and monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 10-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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