Belief dispersion among household investors and stock trading volume
We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household investors is associated with significantly higher trading volume, even after controlling for the disagreements among professional forecasters. Further, we find that the belief dispersion among household investors who are more likely to own stocks has more pronounced effects on trading volume, suggesting a causal relationship. Finally, we show that greater "belief jumbling," or the dispersion of belief changes over a given period, is also related to more active trading during the same period.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
- Thanh Huong Dinh & Jean-François Gajewski, 2007. "An experimental study of trading volume and divergence of expectations in relation to earnings announcement," CIRANO Working Papers 2007s-24, CIRANO.
- Goetzmann, William & Massa, Massimo, 2004.
"Dispersion of Opinion and Stock Returns,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April.
- Neumark, David & Sharpe, Steven A, 1992.
"Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 657-80, May.
- David Neumark & Steven A. Sharpe, 1989. "Market structure and the nature of price rigidity: evidence from the market for consumer deposits," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy, 2007.
"Disagreement and the Stock Market,"
2894690, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Larry H.P. Lang & Robert H. Litzenberger, .
"Trading Volume and Changes in Heterogeneous Expectations,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
6-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Larry H.P. Lang & Robert H. Litzenberger, . "Trading Volume and Changes in Heterogeneous Expectations," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979.
"Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge,"
377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2001.
"Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation,"
NBER Working Papers
8358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ng, Man-Chung, 2003. "On the duality between prior beliefs and trading demands," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 39-51, March.
- Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "Recent trends in trading activity and market quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 243-263, August.
- Hirshleifer, David, 2001.
"Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing,"
5300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Varian, Hal R, 1985. " Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 309-17, March.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "An empirical examination of information, differences of opinion, and trading activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, January.
- Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.