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How Taxes and Required Returns Drove Commercial Real Estate Valuations over the Past Four Decades

Author

Listed:
  • Duca, John V.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Hendershott, Patric H.

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Ling, David C.

    () (University of Florida)

Abstract

We document the evolution of U.S. tax law regarding commercial real estate (CRE) since 1975, noting changes in income and capital gains tax rates and tax depreciation methods. The most prominent changes were the 1981 and 1986 Tax Acts, but numerous significant changes occurred in the last dozen years. We then compute the present value of tax depreciation per dollar of acquisition price and an effective tax rate for CRE. We explain the quarterly variation in CRE capitalization rates using an error correction framework and find that the long run estimates are statistically significant in the way theory would suggest. Moreover, the required financial asset return and the tax depreciation variable temporally predict (“cause”) capitalization rates in the long run, but not vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Duca, John V. & Hendershott, Patric H. & Ling, David C., 2017. "How Taxes and Required Returns Drove Commercial Real Estate Valuations over the Past Four Decades," Working Papers 1703, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 27 Jan 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1703
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1703
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jane G. Gravelle, 1994. "The Economic Effects of Taxing Capital Income," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262071584, November.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1993. "Movements in the Equity Premium," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 75-138.
    3. Antoniades, Adonis, 2015. "Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: the real (estate) story," Working Paper Series 1779, European Central Bank.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    5. Duca, John V. & Ling, David C., 2015. "The other (commercial) real estate boom and bust: the effects of risk premia and regulatory capital arbitrage," Working Papers 1504, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Jun 2015.
    6. John V. Duca & Tao Wu, 2009. "Regulation and the Neo-Wicksellian Approach to Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 799-807, June.
    7. Gau, George W & Wang, Ko, 1994. "The Tax-Induced Holding Periods of Real Estate Investors: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 71-85, January.
    8. William B. Brueggeman & Jeffrey D. Fisher & Jerrold J. Stern, 1981. "Federal Income Taxes, Inflation and Holding Periods for Income-Producing Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 148-164.
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    10. Patric H. Hendershott & Edward J. Kane, 1992. "CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE 1980s COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION BOOM," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 5(1), pages 61-70.
    11. Burman, Leonard E & Randolph, William C, 1994. "Measuring Permanent Responses to Capital-Gains Tax Changes in Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 794-809, September.
    12. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2011. "Do Caps on Increases in Assessed Values Create a Lock-in Effect? Evidence From Florida’s Amendment One," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(1), pages 8-25, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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