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Hot money and quantitative easing: the spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on Chinese housing, equity and loan markets

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  • Steven Wei Ho
  • Ji Zhang
  • Hao Zhou

Abstract

We study a factor-augmented vector autoregression model to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. monetary policy, as well as changes in U.S. policy uncertainty, on the Chinese economy. We find that since the Great Recession, a decline in the U.S. policy rate would result in a significant increase in Chinese regulated interest rates, and rise in Chinese housing investment. One possible reason for this is the substantial inflow of hot money into China. Responses of Chinese variables to U.S. shocks at the zero lower bound are different from that in normal times, which suggest structural changes in both the Chinese economy and the U.S. monetary policy transmission mechanism. Moreover, an increase in U.S. policy uncertainty negatively impacts Chinese stock and real estate market during normal times, but not at the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Wei Ho & Ji Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2014. "Hot money and quantitative easing: the spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on Chinese housing, equity and loan markets," Globalization Institute Working Papers 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:211
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp211
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    Cited by:

    1. Chengjun Shi & Jing Li, 2017. "Does dollar-pegging matter? A closer look at US trade deficits with China and Germany," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 451-472, May.
    2. Wei Wei, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on the Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 1-3.
    3. Zekeriya Yildirim & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2021. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Hongyi Chen & Andrew Tsang, 2016. "The Impact of US Monetary Policy and Other External Shocks on the Hong Kong Economy: A Factor-augmented VAR Approach," Working Papers 092016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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