IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedcwq/98508.html

On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags

Author

Abstract

We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long—about 1.5 years—and highly variable, (2) roughly 40 percent of projects are abandoned in planning, and (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We construct a model with endogenous planning starts and abandonment that matches these facts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more "shovel ready" projects available to advance to construction. We use local projections to validate that this prediction holds in the cross-section for US cities.

Suggested Citation

  • David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein, 2024. "On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags," Working Papers 24-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98508
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202414
    File Function: Persistent Link
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2024/wp2414.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-wp-202414?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raj Chetty, 2006. "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1821-1834, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hellwig, Christian & Werquin, Nicolas, 2022. "A Fair Day's Pay for a Fair Day's Work: Optimal Tax Design as Redistributional Arbitrage," CEPR Discussion Papers 16863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Feigenbaum, James, 2008. "Can mortality risk explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 844-872, September.
    3. Honjo, Yuji & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Nakamura, Hiroki, 2024. "Does risk aversion affect individuals’ interests and actions in angel investing? Empirical evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Florig, Michael & Gossner, Olivier, 2024. "Market equilibrium with management costs and implications for insurance accounting," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125396, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Martin Herdegen & David Hobson & Joseph Jerome, 2025. "Proper solutions for Epstein–Zin stochastic differential utility," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 885-932, July.
    6. Carmen Camacho & Agustín Pérez-Barahona, 2017. "The diffusion of economic activity across space: a new approach," Working Papers halshs-01670532, HAL.
    7. Louis Kaplow, 2010. "Optimal Control of Externalities in the Presence of Income Taxation," STICERD - Public Economics Programme Discussion Papers 02, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    8. Raj Chetty, 2004. "Consumption Commitments, Unemployment Durations, and Local Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 10211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Findeisen, Sebastian & Sachs, Dominik, 2014. "Efficient Labor and Capital Income Taxation over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 14-17, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    10. Tol, Richard S.J. & Yohe, Gary W., 2009. "The Stern Review: A deconstruction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1032-1040, March.
    11. Schünemann, Johannes & Trimborn, Timo, 2023. "Boosting taxes for boasting about houses? Status concerns in the housing market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 120-143.
    12. Findeisen, Sebastian & Sachs, Dominik, 2017. "Redistribution and insurance with simple tax instruments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 58-78.
    13. Heeho Kim, 2013. "Uncertainty and risk premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 62-79, January.
    14. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 182-216, May.
    15. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "The return to education in terms of wealth and health," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    17. Atilla Aras, 2023. "Empirical Evidence for the New Definitions in Financial Markets and Equity Premium Puzzle," Papers 2305.03468, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    18. Marc A. Ragin & Benjamin L. Collier & Johannes G. Jaspersen, 2021. "The effect of information disclosure on demand for high‐load insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 161-193, March.
    19. Fadlon, Itzik & Nielsen, Torben Heien, 2019. "Household labor supply and the gains from social insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 18-28.
    20. Teresa Ghilarducci & Michael Papadopoulos & Wei Sun & Anthony Webb, 2017. "“Catch-Up Contributions†An Equitable and Affordable Solution to the Retirement Savings Crisis," SCEPA working paper series. 2017-02, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.