The sensitivity of long-term interest rates to economic news: comment
Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson (2005) provide empirical evidence that long forward nominal rates are overly sensitive to monetary policy shocks, and that this is consistent with a model where long-term inflation expectations are not anchored because agents must infer the central bank's inflation target from noisy interest rate movements. Using the same data, methodology, and model, we show that their empirical results are neither persistent nor robust to small changes in sample period or methodology. In addition, their theoretical results rely mainly on an ad hoc law of motion for the inflation target-imperfect information about the target plays only a small role in un-anchoring expectations in their model.
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- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006.
"Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden,"
Working Paper Series
2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Levin, Andrew & Swanson, Eric T, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011.
"Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-29, April.
- Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2008. "Are long-run inflation expectations anchored more firmly in the Euro area than in the United States?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Beechey, Meredith J & Johannsen, Benjamin K & Levin, Andrew, 2007. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Beechey, Meredith J. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009.
"The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 535-544, May.
- Meredith J. Beechey & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
- Meredith J. Beechey, 2006. "A closer look at the sensitivity puzzle: the sensitivity of expected future short rates and term premia to macroeconomic news," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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