Trading institutions and price discovery: the cash and futures markets for crude oil
We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.frbatlanta.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Smith, James L., 2002. "Oil and the economy: introduction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 163-168.
- Plott, Charles R. & Smith, Vernon L., .
"An Experimental Examination of Two Exchange Institutions,"
83, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Plott, Charles R & Smith, Vernon L, 1978. "An Experimental Examination of Two Exchange Institutions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 133-53, February.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Friedman, Daniel & Harrison, Glenn W & Salmon, Jon W, 1984. "The Informational Efficiency of Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 349-408, June.
- Forsythe, Robert & Palfrey, Thomas R & Plott, Charles R, 1984. " Futures Markets and Informational Efficiency: A Laboratory Examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 955-81, September.
- Miller, R. M. & Plott, Charles R. & Smith, Vernon L., .
"Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation,"
87, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Miller, Ross M & Plott, Charles R & Smith, Vernon L, 1977. "Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 599-624, November.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Jamison, Julian C. & Plott, Charles R., 1997.
"Costly offers and the equilibration properties of the multiple unit double auction under conditions of unpredictable shifts of demand and supply,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 591-612, April.
- Jamison, Julian C. & Plott, Charles R., 1994. "Costly Offers and the Equilibration Properties of the Multiple Unit Double Auction Under Conditions of Unpredictable Shifts of Demand and Supply," Working Papers 906, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Jeremy Clark, 2002. "House Money Effects in Public Good Experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 223-231, December.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Davis, Douglas D. & Harrison, Glenn W. & Williams, Arlington W., 1993. "Convergence to nonstationary competitive equilibria : An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 305-326, December.
- Krogmeier, Joseph L. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Phillips, Owen R. & Schmitz, John D., 1997. "An Experimental Economics Approach To Analyzing Price Discovery In Forward And Spot Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(02), December.
- Douglas D. Davis & Charles A. Holt, 1996. "Price rigidities and institutional variations in markets with posted prices (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 63-80.
- Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004.
"Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Meredith Rector)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.