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Geospatial Heterogeneity in Inflation: A Market Concentration Story

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Abstract

We study how inflation varies across regions with different income levels and the role of retailer market structure. Using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner and Business Dynamics Statistics data, we document new stylized facts of spatial heterogeneity in food inflation and retailer market structure. From 2006 to 2020, poorer metropolitan statistical areas experienced annualized food inflation that was 0.46 percentage points higher than that of richer ones—amounting to a cumulative difference of 8.8 percentage points over the period. Poorer areas also had fewer goods, fewer retailers, and higher market concentration. Using a triple-difference estimator during the 2014–15 bird flu outbreak, we identify a causal link between market concentration and inflation.

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  • Seula Kim & Michael Navarrete, 2025. "Geospatial Heterogeneity in Inflation: A Market Concentration Story," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2025-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:102337
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2025-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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